Sunderland vs Chelsea Prediction and Betting Tips | Premier League Gameweek 10
Premier League · Sunday 8 November 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Stadium of Light, Sunderland · updated 2026-10-25
Sunderland welcome Chelsea to Stadium of Light in Sunderland in Premier League Gameweek 10 action on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Sunderland have played 7 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 14% of them. At home they average 0.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Chelsea have played 8 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 2.1 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Chelsea are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 24% and Sunderland at 33%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Sunderland 1.52, Chelsea 1.78.
- Over 2.5 goals: 64% · both teams to score: 65%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Sunderland: form and key numbers
In style Sunderland play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.48 a match created, 1.75 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.4).
- Shots: 11.6 a match, 4.0 on target.
- Possession: 48.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.68.
Chelsea: form and key numbers
In style Chelsea are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.33 a match created, 1.37 conceded (goals minus xG: +6.3).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 46.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 63% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Sunderland vs Chelsea: season averages side by side
| Sunderland | Per match this season | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 8 |
| 0.9 | Goals scored | 2.1 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 1.9 |
| 1.48 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.33 |
| 1.75 | xG conceded | 1.37 |
| 11.6 | Shots | 13.4 |
| 4.0 | On target | 5.4 |
| 48.4 | Possession % | 46.5 |
| 14% | Clean sheets % | 13% |
| 43% | Both teams scored % | 63% |
| 4.3 | Corners | 5.6 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.68 | Average rating | 6.88 |
Players to watch
Sunderland
- Brian Brobbey CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 72 · Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions (top 3% of his position)
- Nordi Mukiele RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Duel winner, Reads the game (top 3% of his position)
Chelsea
- Wesley Fofana CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 71 · Reads the game, Duel winner (top 3% of his position)
- Cole Palmer AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 70 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: João Pedro
João Pedro, 25 · Chelsea · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 77
João Pedro, 25, plays as a centre-forward for Chelsea in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in duels won and aerial duels won. Weakest in shots. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 77
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 69
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 62
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 7.77 / 90 | 94% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.80 / 90 | 92% |
| Goals | 0.86 / 90 | 87% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.20 xG/shot | 78% |
| Expected goals | 0.54 / 90 | 76% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Dominant in the air, Clinical finisher.
- What João Pedro is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open João Pedro's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Sunderland vs Chelsea prediction
Sunderland should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.52 for Sunderland and 1.78 for Chelsea - with over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 65%. Chelsea have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Sunderland 1-2 Chelsea
Sunderland vs Chelsea betting tips
- Tip 1: Chelsea win or draw (double chance) 67% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 64% by the model, 3.29 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 65% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.9 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Premier League previews
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- Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion Saturday 31 October 2026
- Hull City vs Ipswich Town Saturday 31 October 2026
- Coventry City vs Sunderland Saturday 31 October 2026
- Brentford vs Nottingham Forest Saturday 31 October 2026
- AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United Saturday 31 October 2026
- Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace Saturday 31 October 2026
Sunderland vs Chelsea: questions and answers
When is Sunderland vs Chelsea?
Sunderland vs Chelsea is on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC, in Premier League Gameweek 10.
Where is Sunderland vs Chelsea played?
At Stadium of Light, Sunderland, Sunderland's home ground.
Who will win Sunderland vs Chelsea?
Chelsea are the favourites: Sunderland 33%, draw 24%, Chelsea 43%. Our prediction is Sunderland 1-2 Chelsea.
Who is the player to watch in Sunderland vs Chelsea?
João Pedro of Chelsea: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 77 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Sunderland vs Chelsea?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.