TSG Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg Prediction and Stats | Bundesliga Gameweek 11
Bundesliga · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 16:30 UTC · SNP Arena, Sinsheim · updated 2026-11-15
TSG Hoffenheim welcome FC Augsburg to SNP Arena in Sinsheim in Bundesliga Gameweek 11 action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 16:30 UTC.
TSG Hoffenheim have played 9 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 44% of them. At home they average 2.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 5 matches, with a 75% win rate. FC Augsburg have played 9 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.2 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 22% of them. Away from home they average 2.8 goals scored and 3.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, TSG Hoffenheim are narrow favourites at 55%, with the draw at 19% and FC Augsburg at 26%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: TSG Hoffenheim 2.57, FC Augsburg 1.79.
- Over 2.5 goals: 81% · both teams to score: 77%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (6%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
TSG Hoffenheim: form and key numbers
In style TSG Hoffenheim keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.93 a match created, 1.52 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.4).
- Shots: 17.6 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 54.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 11% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 78% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
FC Augsburg: form and key numbers
In style FC Augsburg are happy without the ball, cross a lot, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 2.01 a match created, 2.70 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.9).
- Shots: 16.9 a match, 6.7 on target.
- Possession: 44.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 11% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 89% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.9 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
TSG Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg: season averages side by side
| TSG Hoffenheim | Per match this season | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 9 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 2.2 |
| 1.9 | Goals conceded | 2.2 |
| 1.93 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.01 |
| 1.52 | xG conceded | 2.70 |
| 17.6 | Shots | 16.9 |
| 5.2 | On target | 6.7 |
| 54.9 | Possession % | 44.7 |
| 11% | Clean sheets % | 11% |
| 78% | Both teams scored % | 89% |
| 6.1 | Corners | 4.9 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 6.87 | Average rating | 6.90 |
Players to watch
TSG Hoffenheim
- Ozan Kabak CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 65 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 2% of his position)
- Koki Machida CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 63 · Long passer, Dominant in the air (top 4% of his position)
FC Augsburg
- Finn Dahmen GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 62 · Box defender, Shot-stopper (top 19% of his position)
- Fabian Rieder CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 57 · Creator, Chance creator (top 11% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Michael Gregoritsch
Michael Gregoritsch, 32 · FC Augsburg · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 65
Michael Gregoritsch, 32, plays as a centre-forward for FC Augsburg in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in shots on target and expected goals. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 65
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 58
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots on target | 68% | 98% |
| Expected goals | 0.83 / 90 | 92% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.83 / 90 | 92% |
| Aerial duels won | 4.04 / 90 | 90% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.21 xG/shot | 89% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Target man Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Accurate shooter, Gets into scoring positions, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring.
- What Michael Gregoritsch is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Michael Gregoritsch's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
TSG Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg prediction
TSG Hoffenheim should have more of the ball, with FC Augsburg likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; TSG Hoffenheim are a threat in the air and from set pieces; FC Augsburg work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 4.4 goals - 2.57 for TSG Hoffenheim and 1.79 for FC Augsburg - with over 2.5 goals at 81% and both teams scoring at 77%. TSG Hoffenheim have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: TSG Hoffenheim 3-1 FC Augsburg
TSG Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg: what the numbers say
- 1. TSG Hoffenheim unbeaten (win or draw) 74% between them
- 2. 4 or more goals 63% by the model, 4.37 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 77% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.1 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 11.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Bundesliga previews
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- FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig Saturday 21 November 2026
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs TSG Hoffenheim Saturday 21 November 2026
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn Saturday 21 November 2026
- Schalke 04 vs VfB Stuttgart Saturday 21 November 2026
- FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 Sunday 22 November 2026
TSG Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg: questions and answers
When is TSG Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
TSG Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 16:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 11.
Where is TSG Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg played?
At SNP Arena, Sinsheim, TSG Hoffenheim's home ground.
Who will win TSG Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
TSG Hoffenheim are the favourites: TSG Hoffenheim 55%, draw 19%, FC Augsburg 26%. Our prediction is TSG Hoffenheim 3-1 FC Augsburg.
Who is the player to watch in TSG Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Michael Gregoritsch of FC Augsburg: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 65 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in TSG Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 81%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.