Valencia vs Osasuna Prediction and Stats | La Liga Gameweek 14
La Liga · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia · updated 2026-11-15
Valencia welcome Osasuna to Estadio de Mestalla in Valencia in La Liga Gameweek 14 action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
Valencia have played 12 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 17% of them. At home they average 0.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 7 matches, with a 0% win rate. Osasuna have played 12 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 1.2 goals scored and 3.2 conceded over 6 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Valencia 36%, the draw 29%, Osasuna 35%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Valencia 1.24, Osasuna 1.22.
- Over 2.5 goals: 45% · both teams to score: 51%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (7%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Valencia: form and key numbers
In style Valencia are happy without the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 0.97 a match created, 1.51 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.6).
- Shots: 9.8 a match, 2.8 on target.
- Possession: 43.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.67.
Osasuna: form and key numbers
In style Osasuna are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.37 a match created, 1.55 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.4).
- Shots: 11.3 a match, 4.0 on target.
- Possession: 45.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.68.
Valencia vs Osasuna: season averages side by side
| Valencia | Per match this season | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 0.7 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 1.9 |
| 0.97 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.37 |
| 1.51 | xG conceded | 1.55 |
| 9.8 | Shots | 11.3 |
| 2.8 | On target | 4.0 |
| 43.3 | Possession % | 45.3 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 3.8 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 2.8 |
| 6.67 | Average rating | 6.68 |
Players to watch
Valencia
- Guido Rodríguez DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 59 · Duel winner, Ball-winner (top 4% of his position)
- César Tárrega CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 54 · Hard to dribble past, Box defender (top 14% of his position)
Osasuna
- Abel Bretones LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 54 · Dribbler, Duel winner (top 14% of his position)
- Alejandro Catena CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 53 · Long passer, Hard to dribble past (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ante Budimir
Ante Budimir, 35 · Osasuna · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 72
Ante Budimir, 35, plays as a centre-forward for Osasuna in La Liga. Strongest for his role in duels won and shot quality (xG per shot). Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 72
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 61
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 7.65 / 90 | 96% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.21 xG/shot | 95% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.87 / 90 | 94% |
| Expected goals | 0.65 / 90 | 86% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.68 / 90 | 86% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Takes high-quality shots, Dominant in the air.
- What Ante Budimir is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ante Budimir's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Valencia vs Osasuna prediction
Osasuna should have more of the ball; Valencia like to take players on; Osasuna work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.24 for Valencia and 1.22 for Osasuna - with over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams scoring at 51%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Valencia 1-1 Osasuna
Valencia vs Osasuna: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 36%
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 55% by the model, 2.46 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 7.3 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 corners or fewer 7.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More La Liga previews
- Athletic Club vs Espanyol Friday 20 November 2026
- Deportivo Alavés vs Deportivo A Coruña Saturday 21 November 2026
- Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia Saturday 21 November 2026
- Sevilla vs Real Betis Saturday 21 November 2026
- Real Madrid vs Celta de Vigo Saturday 21 November 2026
- FC Barcelona vs Villarreal Sunday 22 November 2026
- Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad Sunday 22 November 2026
- Osasuna vs Málaga Sunday 22 November 2026
Valencia vs Osasuna: questions and answers
When is Valencia vs Osasuna?
Valencia vs Osasuna is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 13:00 UTC, in La Liga Gameweek 14.
Where is Valencia vs Osasuna played?
At Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia, Valencia's home ground.
Who will win Valencia vs Osasuna?
It is close: Valencia 36%, draw 29%, Osasuna 35%. Our prediction is Valencia 1-1 Osasuna.
Who is the player to watch in Valencia vs Osasuna?
Ante Budimir of Osasuna: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 72 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Valencia vs Osasuna?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.