Vélez Sarsfield vs Belgrano Prediction and Stats
Liga Profesional Argentina · Sunday 22 November 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Estadio José Amalfitani, Buenos Aires · updated 2026-11-12
Vélez Sarsfield welcome Belgrano to Estadio José Amalfitani in Buenos Aires in Liga Profesional Argentina action on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
Vélez Sarsfield have played 33 matches in Liga Profesional Argentina this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 42% of them. At home they average 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 17 matches, with a 64% win rate. Belgrano have played 36 matches in Liga Profesional Argentina this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 44% of them. Away from home they average 0.9 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 19 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Vélez Sarsfield 42%, the draw 29%, Belgrano 29%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Vélez Sarsfield 1.35, Belgrano 1.09.
- Over 2.5 goals: 44% · both teams to score: 50%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (33 and 36 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Vélez Sarsfield: form and key numbers
In style Vélez Sarsfield keep the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.18 a match created, 1.32 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.9).
- Shots: 12.6 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 54.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 36% of matches (58% at home).
- Both teams scored in 52% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Belgrano: form and key numbers
In style Belgrano press high, play long and direct, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.22 a match created, 1.32 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.0).
- Shots: 12.9 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 51.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 44% of matches (63% away).
- Both teams scored in 42% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 6.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Vélez Sarsfield vs Belgrano: season averages side by side
| Vélez Sarsfield | Per match this season | Belgrano |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Matches | 36 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 0.9 | Goals conceded | 0.9 |
| 1.18 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.22 |
| 1.32 | xG conceded | 1.32 |
| 12.6 | Shots | 12.9 |
| 4.4 | On target | 4.2 |
| 54.1 | Possession % | 51.6 |
| 36% | Clean sheets % | 44% |
| 52% | Both teams scored % | 42% |
| 4.5 | Corners | 4.2 |
| 2.1 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.88 | Average rating | 6.84 |
Players to watch
Vélez Sarsfield
- Ronaldo Martínez CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 63 · Accurate shooter, Dominant in the air (top 9% of his position)
- Braian Romero CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 55 · Gets into scoring positions, Takes high-quality shots (top 25% of his position)
Belgrano
- Thiago Cardozo GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 46 · Dominant in the air, Long passer (top 46% of his position)
- Manuel Vicentini GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 44 · Long passer, Shot-stopper (top 24% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Lisandro López
Lisandro López, 37 · Belgrano · CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 50
Lisandro López, 37, plays as a centre-back for Belgrano in the Argentine Liga Profesional. Strongest for his role in fouls committed and clearances. Weakest in dribbled past. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 50
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls committed | 0.44 / 90 | 94% |
| Clearances | 7.73 / 90 | 86% |
| Tackles | 2.10 / 90 | 70% |
| Pass accuracy | 90% | 68% |
| Long balls | 3.02 / 90 | 60% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★½ Box defender Centre-back
Scout's notes: Disciplined, Box defender.
- What Lisandro López is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Lisandro López's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Vélez Sarsfield vs Belgrano prediction
Vélez Sarsfield should have more of the ball; Vélez Sarsfield are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Belgrano like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 1.35 for Vélez Sarsfield and 1.09 for Belgrano - with over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams scoring at 50%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Vélez Sarsfield 1-1 Belgrano
Vélez Sarsfield vs Belgrano: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 42%
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 56% by the model, 2.44 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 14.3 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 8.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Vélez Sarsfield vs Belgrano: questions and answers
When is Vélez Sarsfield vs Belgrano?
Vélez Sarsfield vs Belgrano is on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC, in Liga Profesional Argentina.
Where is Vélez Sarsfield vs Belgrano played?
At Estadio José Amalfitani, Buenos Aires, Vélez Sarsfield's home ground.
Who will win Vélez Sarsfield vs Belgrano?
It is close: Vélez Sarsfield 42%, draw 29%, Belgrano 29%. Our prediction is Vélez Sarsfield 1-1 Belgrano.
Who is the player to watch in Vélez Sarsfield vs Belgrano?
Lisandro López of Belgrano: a stopper with a Moneyball Score of 50 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Vélez Sarsfield vs Belgrano?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 44%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.