Villarreal vs Napoli: Prediction, Odds and Preview
UEFA Champions League · Wednesday 14 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
Villarreal host Napoli in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 14 October 2026. The prices see little between them: Villarreal 41%, the draw 27%, Napoli 31% once the bookmaker's margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Villarreal -0.25 at 1.98, Napoli at 1.90. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.93, under 1.94, which gives over 50%.
Form in numbers
- Villarreal create more: 2.28 expected goals a match against 1.48 for Napoli.
- Villarreal give away less, 1.34 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Villarreal 16.0 (6.6 on target), Napoli 13.8 (4.2 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): Villarreal 69.1%, Napoli 51.5%.
| Villarreal | Per match | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| 2.28 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.48 |
| 1.34 | xG conceded | 1.59 |
| 1.86 | Goals | 1.40 |
| 16.0 | Shots | 13.8 |
| 6.6 | Shots on target | 4.2 |
| 2.4 | Big chances missed | 2.0 |
| 69.1 | Pressure share % | 51.5 |
| 14.9 | Tackles | 17.0 |
| 10.7 | Fouls | 9.6 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 0.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 5 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 6 meetings Villarreal won 2, drew 2 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Feb 2016 | Napoli | 1 – 1 | Villarreal |
| 18 Feb 2016 | Villarreal | 1 – 0 | Napoli |
| 7 Dec 2011 | Villarreal | 0 – 2 | Napoli |
| 27 Sep 2011 | Napoli | 2 – 0 | Villarreal |
| 24 Feb 2011 | Villarreal | 2 – 1 | Napoli |
| 17 Feb 2011 | Napoli | 0 – 0 | Villarreal |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.