★ Moneyball Original · Moneyball FPL Scout · Gameweek 10
FPL Gameweek 10 Scout Selection: the best Fantasy team by the numbers
By Moneyball Editorial · published · updated
Gabriel
Evanilson
HaalandThe Moneyball FPL Scout's best team for Gameweek 10 lines up in a 4-3-3 and costs £80.7m, leaving room for a bench within the £100.0m budget. Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães takes the armband, and Arsenal (3), Bournemouth (2) supply more than one player.
Gameweek 10 · 4-3-3 · £80.7m
RayaHUL (H)GabrielHUL (H)
KonsaHUL (H)
De CuyperBRE (H)
Van HeckeLEE (A)
TavernierIPS (A)
IwobiNEW (H)
MbeumoAVL (H)EvanilsonIPS (A)HaalandNFO (A)
IsakCRY (A)Why these eleven
David Raya Martín (Arsenal) £6.2m
Raya hosts Hull City (difficulty 2), with a 56% chance of a clean sheet on the Dixon-Coles matrix. Moneyball expects 5.5 points; his form is 6.0, and 47.2% of managers own him. In the Stats Centre he has 0 goals and 0 assists in 810 minutes, 0.0 shots and 0.0 key passes per 90, rated 7.08 a match.
Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães (Arsenal) £8.0m
Gabriel hosts Hull City (difficulty 2), with a 56% chance of a clean sheet on the Dixon-Coles matrix. Moneyball expects 6.4 points; his form is 8.2, and 25.6% of managers own him. In the Stats Centre he has 1 goal and 0 assists in 810 minutes, 1.0 shots and 0.2 key passes per 90, rated 7.16 a match.
Ezri Konsa Ngoyo (Arsenal) £4.8m
Konsa hosts Hull City (difficulty 2), with a 56% chance of a clean sheet on the Dixon-Coles matrix. Moneyball expects 6.0 points; his form is 9.2, and 23.4% of managers own him. In the Stats Centre he has 1 goal and 0 assists in 641 minutes, 0.4 shots and 0.1 key passes per 90, rated 7.00 a match.
Maxim De Cuyper (Brighton) £5.4m
De Cuyper hosts Brentford (difficulty 3), with a 22% chance of a clean sheet on the Dixon-Coles matrix. Moneyball expects 6.0 points; his form is 7.8, and 46.6% of managers own him. In the Stats Centre he has 2 goals and 3 assists in 745 minutes, 1.4 shots and 2.5 key passes per 90, rated 7.25 a match.
Jan Paul van Hecke (Spurs) £5.0m
Van Hecke visits Leeds (difficulty 3), with a 32% chance of a clean sheet on the Dixon-Coles matrix. Moneyball expects 5.4 points; his form is 7.2, and 13.1% of managers own him. In the Stats Centre he has 2 goals and 0 assists in 810 minutes, 1.1 shots and 1.1 key passes per 90, rated 7.51 a match.
Marcus Tavernier (Bournemouth) £6.6m
Tavernier visits Ipswich Town (difficulty 2), with 0.45 xG and 0.16 xA per 90 this season. Moneyball expects 5.8 points; his form is 6.0, and 30.6% of managers own him. In the Stats Centre he has 5 goals and 0 assists in 755 minutes, 2.3 shots and 1.8 key passes per 90, rated 7.28 a match; his expected goals per 90 sit in the 89th percentile of Premier League midfielders; he has scored 2.5 more than his chances were worth, finishing luck the model takes out.
Alex Iwobi (Fulham) £5.4m
Iwobi hosts Newcastle (difficulty 3), with 0.17 xG and 0.34 xA per 90 this season. Moneyball expects 5.7 points; his form is 6.0, and 1.5% of managers own him. In the Stats Centre he has 1 goal and 0 assists in 737 minutes, 1.8 shots and 2.4 key passes per 90, rated 7.29 a match; his expected goals per 90 sit in the 66th percentile of Premier League midfielders.
Bryan Mbeumo (Man Utd) £7.9m
Mbeumo hosts Aston Villa (difficulty 3), with 0.47 xG and 0.14 xA per 90 this season. Moneyball expects 5.4 points; his form is 4.8, and 19.7% of managers own him. In the Stats Centre he has 4 goals and 0 assists in 810 minutes, 3.0 shots and 1.7 key passes per 90, rated 7.02 a match; his expected goals per 90 sit in the 99th percentile of Premier League midfielders.
Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosa (Bournemouth) £6.4m
Evanilson visits Ipswich Town (difficulty 2), with 0.43 xG and 0.12 xA per 90 this season. Moneyball expects 6.1 points; his form is 8.5, and 22.0% of managers own him. In the Stats Centre he has 4 goals and 4 assists in 758 minutes, 2.6 shots and 1.2 key passes per 90, rated 7.34 a match; his expected goals per 90 sit in the 54th percentile of Premier League forwards.
Erling Haaland (Man City) £15.8m
Haaland visits Nott'm Forest (difficulty 2), with 0.74 xG and 0.10 xA per 90 this season. Moneyball expects 6.1 points; his form is 7.2, and 79.2% of managers own him. In the Stats Centre he has 9 goals and 0 assists in 800 minutes, 3.8 shots and 0.6 key passes per 90, rated 7.41 a match; his expected goals per 90 sit in the 100th percentile of Premier League forwards; he has scored 2.7 more than his chances were worth, finishing luck the model takes out.
Alexander Isak (Liverpool) £9.2m
Isak visits Crystal Palace (difficulty 2), with 0.60 xG and 0.04 xA per 90 this season. Moneyball expects 5.7 points; his form is 5.0, and 24.3% of managers own him. In the Stats Centre he has 6 goals and 0 assists in 661 minutes, 3.0 shots and 1.0 key passes per 90, rated 7.14 a match; his expected goals per 90 sit in the 93th percentile of Premier League forwards.
The captain
Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães has the highest expected points in the team, 6.4, so the armband doubles the most likely haul. Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosa (6.1) is the vice-captain. The full case is in our captain picks for Gameweek 10.
Most FPL points, last 4 gameweeks
| Player | Club | Pts | Goals | Assists | xGI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo | Arsenal | 37 | 1 | 0 | 0.39 |
| Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosa | Bournemouth | 34 | 4 | 1 | 3.22 |
| Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães | Arsenal | 33 | 1 | 0 | 1.01 |
| Nicolas Jackson | Aston Villa | 33 | 4 | 0 | 1.76 |
| Maxim De Cuyper | Brighton | 31 | 1 | 1 | 0.95 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke | Spurs | 29 | 1 | 0 | 1.21 |
| Erling Haaland | Man City | 29 | 4 | 0 | 2.46 |
| Bart Verbruggen | Brighton | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 |
| Yasin Ayari | Brighton | 28 | 2 | 1 | 1.39 |
| Declan Rice | Arsenal | 27 | 0 | 3 | 1.64 |
Ezri Konsa Ngoyo leads the last 4 gameweeks with 37 points, 1 of them goals. Form like this moves prices and ownership: see the price changes for Gameweek 10.
Further reading: five differentials, injury and team news and the best fixtures of the next five gameweeks.
- Attack and defence strength: each club's expected goals for and against per match in the Moneyball Stats Centre, against the league average.
- Expected goals for the fixture: attack against the other side's defence, with home advantage.
- Poisson: how many goals each side scores, from those expected goals.
- Dixon-Coles score matrix: the chance of every scoreline, low scores corrected, as on the Match Board.
- From the score table to the answers: each side's chance of a clean sheet, and so a defender's or goalkeeper's points.
- Probability as a percentage: every chance in the story is a share of 100, never a hunch.
- Players per 90 minutes and percentiles: each player's expected goals, shots and key passes per 90 in the Stats Centre, ranked against his position.
- Live: the same model follows the match minute by minute in Match Live.
- Pi-ratings: what this season's results say of each club home and away, nudging the fixture's expected goals.
- Bayesian shrinkage: a player's chances per 90 pulled toward his position's average while his minutes are few.
- Finishing luck taken out: the model reads expected goals, not goals, so a hot or cold streak in front of goal does not move it.
- Cup calibration: European and domestic cup matches are read on their own scale in the Stats Centre, so a player's cup minutes do not inflate his league figures.
- Selection: the best eleven in every formation the game allows, at most three players from a club, within £83.0m.
Plus the official game's own figures: prices, ownership, form, fixture difficulty and the injury and suspension flags, and the minutes model (starts per gameweek, minutes per start).
Pick your team in Moneyball Fantasy Every player in the Stats Centre
Moneyball FPL Scout is written by Moneyball Editorial from the official Fantasy Premier League figures and the Moneyball Stats Centre (Sportmonks data), and rewritten at every update of the site, so the figures here follow the latest news. Moneyball is independent and is not run, sponsored or endorsed by the Premier League or Fantasy Premier League.
Questions
- What is the best FPL team for Gameweek 10?
- On Moneyball's expected points: Raya, Gabriel, Konsa, De Cuyper, Van Hecke, Tavernier, Iwobi, Mbeumo, Evanilson, Haaland, Isak, in a 4-3-3, costing £80.7m.
- Who should I captain in FPL Gameweek 10?
- Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães has the highest expected points in the selection (6.4), ahead of Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosa (6.1).
- How are the players picked?
- Each player's expected points come from his expected goals and assists per 90, his club's expected goals in the fixture, his clean-sheet chance from the Dixon-Coles matrix, his minutes, his availability and his form. The best eleven in any formation the game allows is chosen within £83.0m, at most three players from a club.