Academico Viseu vs Alverca Prediction and Stats | Liga Portugal Gameweek 12
Liga Portugal · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Estádio Municipal do Fontelo, Viseu · updated 2026-11-14
Academico Viseu welcome Alverca to Estádio Municipal do Fontelo in Viseu in Liga Portugal Gameweek 12 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
Academico Viseu have played 11 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 55% of them. At home they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate. Alverca have played 11 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 27% of them. Away from home they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 5 matches, with a 67% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Academico Viseu 41%, the draw 27%, Alverca 32%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Academico Viseu 1.46, Alverca 1.25.
- Over 2.5 goals: 51% · both teams to score: 56%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Academico Viseu: form and key numbers
In style Academico Viseu are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.10 a match created, 1.78 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.9).
- Shots: 10.2 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 45.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 18% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 55% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Alverca: form and key numbers
In style Alverca are happy without the ball, play long and direct, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.20 a match created, 1.48 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.8).
- Shots: 11.8 a match, 3.9 on target.
- Possession: 41.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 9% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 64% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Academico Viseu vs Alverca: season averages side by side
| Academico Viseu | Per match this season | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 11 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.10 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.20 |
| 1.78 | xG conceded | 1.48 |
| 10.2 | Shots | 11.8 |
| 3.7 | On target | 3.9 |
| 45.5 | Possession % | 41.9 |
| 18% | Clean sheets % | 9% |
| 55% | Both teams scored % | 64% |
| 2.8 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 2.9 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
| 6.83 | Average rating | 6.73 |
Players to watch
Academico Viseu
- Ewerton GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 72 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 9% of his position)
- Alejandro Mestanza AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 49 · Through-ball threat, Press-resistant (top 17% of his position)
Alverca
- Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 48 · Draws fouls, Crosser (top 1% of his position)
- Matheus Mendes GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 43 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 29% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Robinho
Robinho, 29 · Academico Viseu · RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 48
Robinho, 29, plays as a full-back for Academico Viseu in Liga Portugal. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and interceptions. Weakest in dribbled past. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RB · Full-back Natural, 48
- RWB · Wing-back Accomplished, 37
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 1.21 / 90 | 91% |
| Interceptions | 2.05 / 90 | 88% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.14 / 90 | 77% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.65 / 90 | 67% |
| Key passes | 0.93 / 90 | 51% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★ Defensive full-back Full-back
- ★½ Complete wing-back Wing-back
Scout's notes: Dribbler, Reads the game.
- What Robinho is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Academico Viseu vs Alverca prediction
Academico Viseu should have more of the ball; Academico Viseu go long and direct; Alverca like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.46 for Academico Viseu and 1.25 for Alverca - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 56%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Academico Viseu 1-1 Alverca
Academico Viseu vs Alverca: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 41%
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 8.4 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 corners or fewer 7.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Liga Portugal previews
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Academico Viseu vs Alverca: questions and answers
When is Academico Viseu vs Alverca?
Academico Viseu vs Alverca is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 18:00 UTC, in Liga Portugal Gameweek 12.
Where is Academico Viseu vs Alverca played?
At Estádio Municipal do Fontelo, Viseu, Academico Viseu's home ground.
Who will win Academico Viseu vs Alverca?
It is close: Academico Viseu 41%, draw 27%, Alverca 32%. Our prediction is Academico Viseu 1-1 Alverca.
Who is the player to watch in Academico Viseu vs Alverca?
Robinho of Academico Viseu: a attacking full-back with a Moneyball Score of 48 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Academico Viseu vs Alverca?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.