Moreirense vs Santa Clara Prediction and Stats | Liga Portugal Gameweek 12
Liga Portugal · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 15:30 UTC · Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos · updated 2026-11-14
Moreirense welcome Santa Clara to Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas in Moreira de Cónegos in Liga Portugal Gameweek 12 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 15:30 UTC.
Moreirense have played 11 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 36% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate. Santa Clara have played 11 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 55% of them. Away from home they average 1.4 goals scored and 0.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 67% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Santa Clara are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 27% and Moreirense at 22%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Moreirense 0.92, Santa Clara 1.51.
- Over 2.5 goals: 44% · both teams to score: 48%.
- Most likely score: 0–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Moreirense: form and key numbers
In style Moreirense are happy without the ball, play long and direct, take players on.
- Expected goals: 0.86 a match created, 1.79 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.5).
- Shots: 8.7 a match, 2.9 on target.
- Possession: 37.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 9% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 55% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Santa Clara: form and key numbers
In style Santa Clara play long and direct, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.30 a match created, 1.04 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.7).
- Shots: 12.6 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 47.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 55% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 45% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.5 a match.
- Discipline: 3.0 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Moreirense vs Santa Clara: season averages side by side
| Moreirense | Per match this season | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 11 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 0.7 |
| 0.86 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.30 |
| 1.79 | xG conceded | 1.04 |
| 8.7 | Shots | 12.6 |
| 2.9 | On target | 3.5 |
| 37.6 | Possession % | 47.2 |
| 9% | Clean sheets % | 55% |
| 55% | Both teams scored % | 45% |
| 2.6 | Corners | 3.5 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 3.0 |
| 6.70 | Average rating | 6.83 |
Players to watch
Moreirense
- Tiago Andrade LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 47 · Draws fouls, Dribbler (top 3% of his position)
- Kevyn CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 44 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 7% of his position)
Santa Clara
- Gonçalo Paciência CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 47 · Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring, High shot volume (top 34% of his position)
- Vinícius Lopes RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 40 · Draws fouls, Dribbler (top 25% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Fernando
Fernando, 21 · Santa Clara · CF · Pressing forward · Moneyball Score 50
Fernando, 21, plays as a centre-forward for Santa Clara in Liga Portugal. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and key passes. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 50
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 47
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.22 xG/shot | 87% |
| Key passes | 1.80 / 90 | 73% |
| Duels won | 7.41 / 90 | 71% |
| Expected goals | 0.59 / 90 | 64% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.57 / 90 | 62% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots.
- What Fernando is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Moreirense vs Santa Clara prediction
Santa Clara should have more of the ball, with Moreirense likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 0.92 for Moreirense and 1.51 for Santa Clara - with over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams scoring at 48%. Santa Clara have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Moreirense 0-2 Santa Clara
Moreirense vs Santa Clara: what the numbers say
- 1. Santa Clara unbeaten (win or draw) 78% between them
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 56% by the model, 2.43 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 9.0 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 corners or fewer 6.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Liga Portugal previews
- Marítimo vs Nacional Friday 27 November 2026
- Arouca vs Rio Ave Saturday 28 November 2026
- Academico Viseu vs Alverca Saturday 28 November 2026
- Vitória Guimarães vs Estrela Amadora Saturday 28 November 2026
Moreirense vs Santa Clara: questions and answers
When is Moreirense vs Santa Clara?
Moreirense vs Santa Clara is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 15:30 UTC, in Liga Portugal Gameweek 12.
Where is Moreirense vs Santa Clara played?
At Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos, Moreirense's home ground.
Who will win Moreirense vs Santa Clara?
Santa Clara are the favourites: Moreirense 22%, draw 27%, Santa Clara 50%. Our prediction is Moreirense 0-2 Santa Clara.
Who is the player to watch in Moreirense vs Santa Clara?
Fernando of Santa Clara: a pressing forward with a Moneyball Score of 50 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Moreirense vs Santa Clara?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 44%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.