Vitória Guimarães vs Estrela Amadora Prediction and Stats | Liga Portugal Gameweek 12
Liga Portugal · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 20:30 UTC · Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, Guimarães · updated 2026-11-14
Vitória Guimarães welcome Estrela Amadora to Estádio D. Afonso Henriques in Guimarães in Liga Portugal Gameweek 12 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 20:30 UTC.
Vitória Guimarães have played 11 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 18% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 6 matches, with a 100% win rate. Estrela Amadora have played 11 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 18% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Vitória Guimarães are narrow favourites at 48%, with the draw at 26% and Estrela Amadora at 26%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Vitória Guimarães 1.64, Estrela Amadora 1.14.
- Over 2.5 goals: 52% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Vitória Guimarães: form and key numbers
In style Vitória Guimarães keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.51 a match created, 1.02 conceded (goals minus xG: -5.6).
- Shots: 16.9 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 53.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 36% of matches (75% at home).
- Both teams scored in 36% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
Estrela Amadora: form and key numbers
In style Estrela Amadora play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.47 a match created, 1.24 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.8).
- Shots: 12.6 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 50.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 73% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.74.
Vitória Guimarães vs Estrela Amadora: season averages side by side
| Vitória Guimarães | Per match this season | Estrela Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 11 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.1 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 1.51 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.47 |
| 1.02 | xG conceded | 1.24 |
| 16.9 | Shots | 12.6 |
| 4.5 | On target | 3.8 |
| 53.0 | Possession % | 50.6 |
| 36% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 36% | Both teams scored % | 73% |
| 5.4 | Corners | 4.1 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
| 6.80 | Average rating | 6.74 |
Players to watch
Vitória Guimarães
- Gustavo Silva RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 51 · Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 20% of his position)
- Tony Strata RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 49 · Hard to dribble past, Chance creator (top 3% of his position)
Estrela Amadora
- Abraham Marcus RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 39 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 14% of his position)
- Rafa Soares LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 38 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 12% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: A. Ndoye
A. Ndoye, 25 · Vitória Guimarães · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 57
A. Ndoye, 25, plays as a centre-forward for Vitória Guimarães in Liga Portugal. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and duels won. Weakest in shots on target. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 57
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 54
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 7.09 / 90 | 98% |
| Duels won | 10.83 / 90 | 96% |
| Shots | 4.53 / 90 | 77% |
| Key passes | 1.77 / 90 | 73% |
| Expected goals | 0.59 / 90 | 64% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, Duel winner.
- What A. Ndoye is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Vitória Guimarães vs Estrela Amadora prediction
Vitória Guimarães should have more of the ball; Vitória Guimarães are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Estrela Amadora work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.64 for Vitória Guimarães and 1.14 for Estrela Amadora - with over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 55%. Vitória Guimarães have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Vitória Guimarães 2-1 Estrela Amadora
Vitória Guimarães vs Estrela Amadora: what the numbers say
- 1. Vitória Guimarães unbeaten (win or draw) 74% between them
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.77 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (52%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.7 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Vitória Guimarães vs Estrela Amadora: questions and answers
When is Vitória Guimarães vs Estrela Amadora?
Vitória Guimarães vs Estrela Amadora is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 20:30 UTC, in Liga Portugal Gameweek 12.
Where is Vitória Guimarães vs Estrela Amadora played?
At Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, Guimarães, Vitória Guimarães's home ground.
Who will win Vitória Guimarães vs Estrela Amadora?
Vitória Guimarães are the favourites: Vitória Guimarães 48%, draw 26%, Estrela Amadora 26%. Our prediction is Vitória Guimarães 2-1 Estrela Amadora.
Who is the player to watch in Vitória Guimarães vs Estrela Amadora?
A. Ndoye of Vitória Guimarães: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 57 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Vitória Guimarães vs Estrela Amadora?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.