Marítimo vs Nacional Prediction and Stats | Liga Portugal Gameweek 12
Liga Portugal · Friday 27 November 2026 · 20:15 UTC · Estádio do Marítimo, Ilha da Madeira · updated 2026-11-14
Marítimo welcome Nacional to Estádio do Marítimo in Ilha da Madeira in Liga Portugal Gameweek 12 action on Friday 27 November 2026, kick-off 20:15 UTC.
Marítimo have played 10 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 2.1 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate. Nacional have played 11 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 27% of them. Away from home they average 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Marítimo 39%, the draw 28%, Nacional 33%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Marítimo 1.39, Nacional 1.26.
- Over 2.5 goals: 49% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Marítimo: form and key numbers
In style Marítimo are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.00 a match created, 1.42 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.0).
- Shots: 10.7 a match, 3.4 on target.
- Possession: 45.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 10% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.65.
Nacional: form and key numbers
In style Nacional play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.07 a match created, 1.59 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.8).
- Shots: 10.8 a match, 3.3 on target.
- Possession: 46.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 27% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 36% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
Marítimo vs Nacional: season averages side by side
| Marítimo | Per match this season | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 11 |
| 0.9 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 2.1 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 1.00 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.07 |
| 1.42 | xG conceded | 1.59 |
| 10.7 | Shots | 10.8 |
| 3.4 | On target | 3.3 |
| 45.2 | Possession % | 46.9 |
| 10% | Clean sheets % | 27% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 36% |
| 3.3 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.65 | Average rating | 6.72 |
Players to watch
Marítimo
- Francisco Barbosa Vieites GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 43 · Dominant in the air, Shot-stopper (top 9% of his position)
- Martín Tejón LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 34 · Draws fouls, Crosser (top 14% of his position)
Nacional
- Liziero CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 39 · Reads the game, Gets into scoring positions (top 26% of his position)
- Léo Santos CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 37 · Long passer, Dominant in the air (top 20% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ze Vitor
Ze Vitor, 25 · Nacional · CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 41
Ze Vitor, 25, plays as a centre-back for Nacional in Liga Portugal. Strongest for his role in long balls and dribbled past. Weakest in interceptions. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 41
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Long balls | 4.76 / 90 | 88% |
| Dribbled past | 0.19 / 90 | 74% |
| Aerial duels won | 2.85 / 90 | 65% |
| Clearances | 6.56 / 90 | 54% |
| Blocked shots | 0.95 / 90 | 51% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★½ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★ Ball-playing centre-back Centre-back
Scout's notes: Long passer.
- What Ze Vitor is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Marítimo vs Nacional prediction
Nacional should have more of the ball; Marítimo are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Nacional go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.39 for Marítimo and 1.26 for Nacional - with over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 54%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Marítimo 1-1 Nacional
Marítimo vs Nacional: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 39%
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.64 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (49%)
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.5 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 corners or fewer 7.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Marítimo vs Nacional: questions and answers
When is Marítimo vs Nacional?
Marítimo vs Nacional is on Friday 27 November 2026, kick-off 20:15 UTC, in Liga Portugal Gameweek 12.
Where is Marítimo vs Nacional played?
At Estádio do Marítimo, Ilha da Madeira, Marítimo's home ground.
Who will win Marítimo vs Nacional?
It is close: Marítimo 39%, draw 28%, Nacional 33%. Our prediction is Marítimo 1-1 Nacional.
Who is the player to watch in Marítimo vs Nacional?
Ze Vitor of Nacional: a box defender with a Moneyball Score of 41 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Marítimo vs Nacional?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.