Arouca vs Rio Ave Prediction and Stats | Liga Portugal Gameweek 12
Liga Portugal · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 15:30 UTC · Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca · updated 2026-11-14
Arouca welcome Rio Ave to Estádio Municipal de Arouca in Arouca in Liga Portugal Gameweek 12 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 15:30 UTC.
Arouca have played 11 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 55% of them. At home they average 1.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded over 5 matches, with a 67% win rate. Rio Ave have played 11 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 18% of them. Away from home they average 0.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Arouca are clear favourites at 63%, with the draw at 24% and Rio Ave at 13%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Arouca 1.76, Rio Ave 0.66.
- Over 2.5 goals: 44% · both teams to score: 41%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Arouca: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.04 a match created, 1.18 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.5).
- Shots: 11.0 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 52.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 55% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 27% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Rio Ave: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.71 a match created, 1.77 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.2).
- Shots: 7.6 a match, 3.2 on target.
- Possession: 47.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 9% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 27% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.58.
Arouca vs Rio Ave: season averages side by side
| Arouca | Per match this season | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 11 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 0.8 |
| 0.7 | Goals conceded | 2.2 |
| 1.04 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.71 |
| 1.18 | xG conceded | 1.77 |
| 11.0 | Shots | 7.6 |
| 3.8 | On target | 3.2 |
| 52.0 | Possession % | 47.6 |
| 55% | Clean sheets % | 9% |
| 27% | Both teams scored % | 27% |
| 3.5 | Corners | 3.6 |
| 2.6 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.82 | Average rating | 6.58 |
Players to watch
Arouca
- Ignacio de Arruabarrena GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 48 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 25% of his position)
- José Fontán CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 46 · Long passer, Hard to dribble past (top 6% of his position)
Rio Ave
- Vítor Hugo GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 38 · Secure passer, Box defender (top 20% of his position)
- João Tomé RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 37 · Reads the game, Dribbler (top 17% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Javi Sánchez
Javi Sánchez, 29 · Arouca · CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 50
Javi Sánchez, 29, plays as a centre-back for Arouca in Liga Portugal. Strongest for his role in pass accuracy and dribbled past. Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 50
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Pass accuracy | 93% | 93% |
| Dribbled past | 0.10 / 90 | 89% |
| Fouls committed | 0.41 / 90 | 88% |
| Long balls | 3.99 / 90 | 76% |
| Interceptions | 1.95 / 90 | 74% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Ball-playing centre-back Centre-back
- ★★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★½ Anchor Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Secure passer, Hard to dribble past, Disciplined.
- What Javi Sánchez is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Javi Sánchez's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Arouca vs Rio Ave prediction
Arouca should have more of the ball, with Rio Ave likely to sit in a compact block and look to break. Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 1.76 for Arouca and 0.66 for Rio Ave - with over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams scoring at 41%. Arouca have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Arouca 2-0 Rio Ave
Arouca vs Rio Ave: what the numbers say
- 1. Arouca win, the likeliest result 63% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 56% by the model, 2.42 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: no 59% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 9.5 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 corners or fewer 7.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Liga Portugal previews
- Marítimo vs Nacional Friday 27 November 2026
- Moreirense vs Santa Clara Saturday 28 November 2026
- Academico Viseu vs Alverca Saturday 28 November 2026
- Vitória Guimarães vs Estrela Amadora Saturday 28 November 2026
Arouca vs Rio Ave: questions and answers
When is Arouca vs Rio Ave?
Arouca vs Rio Ave is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 15:30 UTC, in Liga Portugal Gameweek 12.
Where is Arouca vs Rio Ave played?
At Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca, Arouca's home ground.
Who will win Arouca vs Rio Ave?
Arouca are the favourites: Arouca 63%, draw 24%, Rio Ave 13%. Our prediction is Arouca 2-0 Rio Ave.
Who is the player to watch in Arouca vs Rio Ave?
Javi Sánchez of Arouca: a ball-playing centre-back with a Moneyball Score of 50 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Arouca vs Rio Ave?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 44%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.