AFC Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth · updated 2026-10-09
AFC Bournemouth host Sturm Graz in the Europa League on Thursday 15 October 2026 at Vitality Stadium. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Sturm Graz slight favourites at 42%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 28% and expects about 2.5 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: AFC Bournemouth 1.15, Sturm Graz 1.39.
- Over 2.5 goals: 47% · both teams to score: 52%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Marcus Tavernier
Marcus Tavernier, 27 · AFC Bournemouth · LWF · Creative winger
Moneyball Scout picks Marcus Tavernier as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 66 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 73, defensive 53).
- Accurate crosses: 1.69 per 90 minutes, better than 92% of wingers
- Expected goals: 0.32 per 90 minutes, better than 82% of wingers
- Expected assists (est.): 0.30 per 90 minutes, better than 82% of wingers
Sturm Graz concede only 0.8 goals a match this season: breaking that defence is the job of a creative winger like Marcus Tavernier.
Scout's notes: Crosser, Gets into scoring positions, Creator.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| AFC Bournemouth | Per match this season | Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 4 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 1.52 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.62 |
| 1.23 | xG conceded | – |
| 13.6 | Shots | 15.3 |
| 5.2 | On target | 4.5 |
| 47.6 | Possession % | 36.8 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 80% | Both teams scored % | 0% |
| 4.2 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 2.8 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.78 | Average rating | 6.91 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; AFC Bournemouth in its domestic league; Sturm Graz in its domestic league.
Players to watch
AFC Bournemouth
- Marcus Tavernier midfielder · rating 7.49 · 5 apps
- Alex Scott midfielder · rating 7.18 · 5 apps
- Justin Kluivert midfielder · rating 7.05 · 4 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa League previews
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- Union Saint-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad Thursday 15 October 2026
- Torreense vs Sunderland Thursday 15 October 2026
- Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Thursday 15 October 2026
- Olympique Lyonnais vs Crystal Palace Thursday 15 October 2026
- Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm Thursday 15 October 2026
- Celje vs Omonia Nicosia Thursday 15 October 2026
- Salzburg vs AC Milan Thursday 15 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.