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AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva: Prediction, Stats and Preview

Europa League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar · updated 2026-10-09

AZ Alkmaar host Hapoel Be'er Sheva in the Europa League on Thursday 15 October 2026 at AFAS Stadion. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes AZ Alkmaar slight favourites at 43%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 30% and expects about 2.3 goals.

Moneyball's estimate

AZ Alkmaar43%fair odds 2.34
Draw30%fair odds 3.37
Hapoel Be'er Sheva28%fair odds 3.62

From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (1 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.

Season statistics

AZ AlkmaarPer match this seasonHapoel Be'er Sheva
1Matches6
0.0Goals scored1.7
1.0Goals conceded1.3
1.53Expected goals (xG)0.51
11.0Shots9.7
2.0On target4.2
55.0Possession %50.2
0%Clean sheets %50%
0%Both teams scored %50%
5.0Corners3.7
2.0Yellow cards2.8
6.67Average rating6.58

Averages per match from Sportmonks; Hapoel Be'er Sheva in its domestic league.

The full analysis

Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.

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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.