Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Enea stadion, Poznań · updated 2026-10-09
Lech Poznań host Bayer 04 Leverkusen in the Europa League on Thursday 15 October 2026 at Enea stadion. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Lech Poznań slight favourites at 38%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 24% and expects about 3.4 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Lech Poznań 1.72, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.71.
- Over 2.5 goals: 67% · both teams to score: 68%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Ibrahim Maza
Ibrahim Maza, 20 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · AMF · Shadow striker
Moneyball Scout picks Ibrahim Maza as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 79, defensive 56).
- Shots: 4.25 per 90 minutes, better than 95% of attacking midfielders
- Successful dribbles: 2.25 per 90 minutes, better than 91% of attacking midfielders
- Key passes: 3.25 per 90 minutes, better than 87% of attacking midfielders
Lech Poznań concede 1.2 goals a match this season, about the league's average: whether they hold depends on how they handle a shadow striker like Ibrahim Maza.
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Dribbler, Chance creator.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Lech Poznań | Per match this season | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 4 |
| 3.0 | Goals scored | 2.5 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 0.99 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.53 |
| – | xG conceded | 0.89 |
| 18.0 | Shots | 22.5 |
| 7.4 | On target | 6.3 |
| 56.8 | Possession % | 61.3 |
| 60% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 20% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 5.4 | Corners | 9.3 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.78 | Average rating | 6.98 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Bayer 04 Leverkusen in its domestic league.
Players to watch
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Aleix García midfielder · rating 7.67 · 4 apps
- Miguel Gutiérrez defender · rating 7.65 · 4 apps
- Patrik Schick forward · rating 7.45 · 4 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.