Celje vs Omonia Nicosia: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Stadion Z'dežele, Celje · updated 2026-10-09
Celje host Omonia Nicosia in the Europa League on Thursday 15 October 2026 at Stadion Z'dežele. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Omonia Nicosia slight favourites at 41%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 29% and expects about 2.3 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Celje 1.06, Omonia Nicosia 1.28.
- Over 2.5 goals: 41% · both teams to score: 48%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Season statistics
| Celje | Per match this season | Omonia Nicosia |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.7 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 0.66 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.75 |
| 11.0 | Shots | 12.8 |
| 5.0 | On target | 4.4 |
| 57.3 | Possession % | 50.0 |
| 17% | Clean sheets % | 40% |
| 83% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 5.2 | Corners | 4.2 |
| 3.3 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
| 6.50 | Average rating | 6.77 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Celje in its domestic league.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa League previews
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.