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Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm: Prediction, Stats and Preview

Europa League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · TC Strahov, Praha · updated 2026-10-09

Sparta Praha host Lillestrøm in the Europa League on Thursday 15 October 2026 at TC Strahov. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Lillestrøm slight favourites at 37%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 30% and expects about 2.3 goals.

Moneyball's estimate

Sparta Praha34%fair odds 2.98
Draw30%fair odds 3.38
Lillestrøm37%fair odds 2.71

From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (2 and 3 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.

Season statistics

Sparta PrahaPer match this seasonLillestrøm
2Matches3
1.0Goals scored1.0
2.0Goals conceded1.0
0.97Expected goals (xG)0.90
7.5Shots13.7
2.0On target4.3
48.0Possession %57.7
0%Clean sheets %33%
50%Both teams scored %67%
3.5Corners8.0
1.5Yellow cards1.7
6.59Average rating6.66

Averages per match from Sportmonks; Sparta Praha in its domestic league.

The full analysis

Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.

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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.