Ajax vs Thun Prediction and Stats | Europa Conference League Gameweek 4
Europa Conference League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam · updated 2026-11-13
Ajax welcome Thun to Johan Cruijff Arena in Amsterdam in Europa Conference League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Ajax have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 67% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 57% win rate. Thun have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Ajax are narrow favourites at 52%, with the draw at 25% and Thun at 23%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Ajax 1.79, Thun 1.12.
- Over 2.5 goals: 55% · both teams to score: 57%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (3 and 3 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Ajax: form and key numbers
In style Ajax keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 3.02 a match created (goals minus xG: +3.8).
- Shots: 22.4 a match, 9.3 on target.
- Possession: 65.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 11% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 89% of their matches.
- Corners: 8.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.1 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.08.
Thun: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.31 a match created (goals minus xG: -0.9).
- Shots: 12.0 a match, 4.0 on target.
- Possession: 42.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.67.
Ajax vs Thun: season averages side by side
| Ajax | Per match this season | Thun |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matches | 3 |
| 3.0 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 3.02 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.31 |
| 22.4 | Shots | 12.0 |
| 9.3 | On target | 4.0 |
| 65.0 | Possession % | 42.3 |
| 11% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 89% | Both teams scored % | 33% |
| 8.4 | Corners | 2.3 |
| 1.1 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 7.08 | Average rating | 6.67 |
Players to watch
Ajax
- Oscar Gloukh AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 53 · Dribbler, Big-chance creator (top 8% of his position)
- Steven Berghuis RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 46 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 11% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Tolu Arokodare
Tolu Arokodare, 25 · Ajax · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 56
Tolu Arokodare, 25, plays as a centre-forward for Ajax in the Eredivisie. Strongest for his role in shots and goals, luck taken out. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 56
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 51
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 4.57 / 90 | 88% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.69 / 90 | 83% |
| Expected goals | 0.61 / 90 | 80% |
| Aerial duels won | 4.43 / 90 | 70% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 xG/shot | 47% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★ Target man Centre-forward
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring.
- What Tolu Arokodare is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Tolu Arokodare's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Ajax vs Thun prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.79 for Ajax and 1.12 for Thun - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 57%. Ajax have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Ajax 2-1 Thun
Ajax vs Thun: what the numbers say
- 1. Ajax unbeaten (win or draw) 77% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 55% by the model, 2.90 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.4 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 10.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Ajax vs Thun: questions and answers
When is Ajax vs Thun?
Ajax vs Thun is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 4.
Where is Ajax vs Thun played?
At Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam, Ajax's home ground.
Who will win Ajax vs Thun?
Ajax are the favourites: Ajax 52%, draw 25%, Thun 23%. Our prediction is Ajax 2-1 Thun.
Who is the player to watch in Ajax vs Thun?
Tolu Arokodare of Ajax: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 56 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Ajax vs Thun?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.