Kairat vs Mjällby Prediction and Stats | Europa Conference League Gameweek 4
Europa Conference League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 15:30 UTC · Hisor Central Stadium, Hisor · updated 2026-11-13
Kairat welcome Mjällby to Hisor Central Stadium in Hisor in Europa Conference League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 15:30 UTC.
Kairat have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 5.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate. Mjällby have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 0.3 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Mjällby are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 27% and Kairat at 29%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Kairat 1.17, Mjällby 1.47.
- Over 2.5 goals: 49% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (3 and 3 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Kairat: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.76 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.7).
- Shots: 11.0 a match, 3.0 on target.
- Possession: 36.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 3.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.62.
Mjällby: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.97 a match created (goals minus xG: -0.9).
- Shots: 15.7 a match, 5.7 on target.
- Possession: 45.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 67% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Kairat vs Mjällby: season averages side by side
| Kairat | Per match this season | Mjällby |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matches | 3 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.7 |
| 2.3 | Goals conceded | 0.3 |
| 0.76 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.97 |
| 11.0 | Shots | 15.7 |
| 3.0 | On target | 5.7 |
| 36.0 | Possession % | 45.0 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 67% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 33% |
| 3.3 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 3.0 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.62 | Average rating | 6.95 |
Kairat vs Mjällby prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.17 for Kairat and 1.47 for Mjällby - with over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 54%. Mjällby have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Kairat 1-2 Mjällby
Kairat vs Mjällby: what the numbers say
- 1. Mjällby unbeaten (win or draw) 71% between them
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.64 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (49%)
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.0 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 9.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Europa Conference League previews
- FC Iberia 1999 vs Getafe Thursday 26 November 2026
- Brighton & Hove Albion vs Universitatea Craiova Thursday 26 November 2026
- Ajax vs Thun Thursday 26 November 2026
- Brann vs AGF Thursday 26 November 2026
- Pafos FC vs FC Midtjylland Thursday 26 November 2026
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lincoln Red Imps Thursday 26 November 2026
- Hearts vs Monaco Thursday 26 November 2026
- Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga Thursday 26 November 2026
Kairat vs Mjällby: questions and answers
When is Kairat vs Mjällby?
Kairat vs Mjällby is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 15:30 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 4.
Where is Kairat vs Mjällby played?
At Hisor Central Stadium, Hisor, Kairat's home ground.
Who will win Kairat vs Mjällby?
Mjällby are the favourites: Kairat 29%, draw 27%, Mjällby 44%. Our prediction is Kairat 1-2 Mjällby.
How many goals will there be in Kairat vs Mjällby?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.