Hearts vs Monaco Prediction and Stats | Europa Conference League Gameweek 4
Europa Conference League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh · updated 2026-11-13
Hearts welcome Monaco to Tynecastle Park in Edinburgh in Europa Conference League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Hearts have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate. Monaco have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 0.3 goals a game and winning 100% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 40% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Hearts 34%, the draw 28%, Monaco 38%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Hearts 1.23, Monaco 1.31.
- Over 2.5 goals: 46% · both teams to score: 52%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (3 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Hearts: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 2.09 a match created (goals minus xG: -4.5).
- Shots: 14.8 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 41.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Monaco: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.66 a match created (goals minus xG: +5.7).
- Shots: 12.2 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 54.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.99.
Hearts vs Monaco: season averages side by side
| Hearts | Per match this season | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matches | 3 |
| 0.7 | Goals scored | 2.3 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 0.3 |
| 2.09 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.66 |
| 14.8 | Shots | 12.2 |
| 4.6 | On target | 5.6 |
| 41.4 | Possession % | 54.4 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 40% |
| 80% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 4.4 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 6.84 | Average rating | 6.99 |
Players to watch
Monaco
- Paris Brunner CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 54 · Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring, Gets into scoring positions (top 24% of his position)
- Nazinho LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 54 · Reads the game, Ball circulator (top 6% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Lamine Camara
Lamine Camara, 22 · Monaco · CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 62
Lamine Camara, 22, plays as a central midfielder for Monaco in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in pass accuracy and long balls. Weakest in expected assists (est.). Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 62
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 62
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Pass accuracy | 91% | 92% |
| Long balls | 3.70 / 90 | 86% |
| Tackles | 3.20 / 90 | 81% |
| Dispossessed | 0.60 / 90 | 79% |
| Passes | 66.50 / 90 | 70% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
- ★★★½ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
- ★★★½ Ball-winner Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Secure passer, Long passer, Ball-winner.
- What Lamine Camara is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Lamine Camara's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Hearts vs Monaco prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.23 for Hearts and 1.31 for Monaco - with over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams scoring at 52%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Hearts 1-1 Monaco
Hearts vs Monaco: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 38%
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 54% by the model, 2.53 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.8 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 corners or fewer 8.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Hearts vs Monaco: questions and answers
When is Hearts vs Monaco?
Hearts vs Monaco is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 4.
Where is Hearts vs Monaco played?
At Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh, Hearts's home ground.
Who will win Hearts vs Monaco?
It is close: Hearts 34%, draw 28%, Monaco 38%. Our prediction is Hearts 1-1 Monaco.
Who is the player to watch in Hearts vs Monaco?
Lamine Camara of Monaco: a ball-winning midfielder with a Moneyball Score of 62 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Hearts vs Monaco?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.