Akron vs Fakel Prediction and Stats | Russian Premier League Gameweek 15
Russian Premier League · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 12:15 UTC · Samara Arena, Samara · updated 2026-11-13
Akron welcome Fakel to Samara Arena in Samara in Russian Premier League Gameweek 15 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 12:15 UTC.
Akron have played 14 matches in Russian Premier League this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 14% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 2.2 conceded over 6 matches, with a 100% win rate. Fakel have played 14 matches in Russian Premier League this season, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 7% of them. Away from home they average 0.8 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 6 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Akron are narrow favourites at 48%, with the draw at 28% and Fakel at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Akron 1.49, Fakel 0.99.
- Over 2.5 goals: 45% · both teams to score: 49%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (14 and 14 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Akron: form and key numbers
In style Akron keep the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.02 a match created, 1.42 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.6).
- Shots: 12.1 a match, 3.9 on target.
- Possession: 53.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 64% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Fakel: form and key numbers
In style Fakel are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.04 a match created, 1.60 conceded (goals minus xG: -5.6).
- Shots: 10.9 a match, 2.6 on target.
- Possession: 46.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.66.
Akron vs Fakel: season averages side by side
| Akron | Per match this season | Fakel |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Matches | 14 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 0.6 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 1.02 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.04 |
| 1.42 | xG conceded | 1.60 |
| 12.1 | Shots | 10.9 |
| 3.9 | On target | 2.6 |
| 53.2 | Possession % | 46.6 |
| 14% | Clean sheets % | 14% |
| 64% | Both teams scored % | 43% |
| 4.4 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 2.9 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.77 | Average rating | 6.66 |
Players to watch
Akron
- Khetag Khosonov DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 23 · Long passer, Duel winner (top 34% of his position)
- Marat Bokoev CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 22 · Reads the game, Hard to dribble past (top 34% of his position)
Fakel
- Igor Yurganov CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 19 · Hard to dribble past, Dominant in the air (top 41% of his position)
- Igor Obukhov GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 17 · Dominant in the air, Long passer (top 66% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Axel Aymeric Gnapi Dable
Axel Aymeric Gnapi Dable · Fakel · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 25
Axel Aymeric Gnapi Dable plays as a centre-forward for Fakel in the Russian Premier League. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and aerial duels won. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 25
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 22
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.21 xG/shot | 90% |
| Aerial duels won | 4.37 / 90 | 74% |
| Duels won | 7.93 / 90 | 47% |
| Expected goals | 0.59 / 90 | 34% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.49 / 90 | 19% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots.
- What Axel Aymeric Gnapi Dable is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Axel Aymeric Gnapi Dable's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Akron vs Fakel prediction
Akron should have more of the ball, with Fakel likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Akron go long and direct; Fakel are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.49 for Akron and 0.99 for Fakel - with over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams scoring at 49%. Akron have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Akron 2-0 Fakel
Akron vs Fakel: what the numbers say
- 1. Akron unbeaten (win or draw) 75% between them
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 55% by the model, 2.48 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 8.0 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 9.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Akron vs Fakel: questions and answers
When is Akron vs Fakel?
Akron vs Fakel is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 12:15 UTC, in Russian Premier League Gameweek 15.
Where is Akron vs Fakel played?
At Samara Arena, Samara, Akron's home ground.
Who will win Akron vs Fakel?
Akron are the favourites: Akron 48%, draw 28%, Fakel 25%. Our prediction is Akron 2-0 Fakel.
Who is the player to watch in Akron vs Fakel?
Axel Aymeric Gnapi Dable of Fakel: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 25 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Akron vs Fakel?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.