Rodina Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva Prediction and Stats | Russian Premier League Gameweek 15
Russian Premier League · Sunday 22 November 2026 · 16:00 UTC · updated 2026-11-13
Rodina Moskva welcome Lokomotiv Moskva in Russian Premier League Gameweek 15 action on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
Rodina Moskva have played 14 matches in Russian Premier League this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 2.1 goals a game and winning 21% of them. At home they average 1.7 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 6 matches, with a 33% win rate. Lokomotiv Moskva have played 14 matches in Russian Premier League this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 14% of them. Away from home they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 7 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Rodina Moskva 37%, the draw 25%, Lokomotiv Moskva 37%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Rodina Moskva 1.51, Lokomotiv Moskva 1.52.
- Over 2.5 goals: 58% · both teams to score: 62%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (14 and 14 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Rodina Moskva: form and key numbers
In style Rodina Moskva are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.00 a match created, 1.91 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.9).
- Shots: 9.7 a match, 3.0 on target.
- Possession: 45.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 7% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 57% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.65.
Lokomotiv Moskva: form and key numbers
In style Lokomotiv Moskva are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.22 a match created, 2.05 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.1).
- Shots: 12.9 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 50.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 21% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
Rodina Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva: season averages side by side
| Rodina Moskva | Per match this season | Lokomotiv Moskva |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Matches | 14 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 2.1 | Goals conceded | 1.5 |
| 1.00 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.22 |
| 1.91 | xG conceded | 2.05 |
| 9.7 | Shots | 12.9 |
| 3.0 | On target | 3.5 |
| 45.1 | Possession % | 50.1 |
| 7% | Clean sheets % | 21% |
| 57% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 3.3 | Corners | 3.5 |
| 2.9 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
| 6.65 | Average rating | 6.80 |
Players to watch
Rodina Moskva
- L. Goglichidze LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 20 · Dribbler, Crosser (top 12% of his position)
- German Onugkha CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 20 · Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter (top 32% of his position)
Lokomotiv Moskva
- Anton Mitryushkin GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 34 · Shot-stopper, Box defender (top 50% of his position)
- César Montes CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 31 · Dominant in the air, Hard to dribble past (top 18% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Evgeniy Morozov
Evgeniy Morozov, 25 · Lokomotiv Moskva · CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 27
Evgeniy Morozov, 25, plays as a centre-back for Lokomotiv Moskva in the Russian Premier League. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and duels won. Weakest in fouls committed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 27
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 4.10 / 90 | 75% |
| Duels won | 8.01 / 90 | 73% |
| Blocked shots | 1.24 / 90 | 55% |
| Interceptions | 2.00 / 90 | 53% |
| Tackles | 2.29 / 90 | 48% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Anchor Defensive midfielder
- ★★★½ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★ Box defender Centre-back
- What Evgeniy Morozov is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Evgeniy Morozov's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Rodina Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva prediction
Lokomotiv Moskva should have more of the ball, with Rodina Moskva likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.51 for Rodina Moskva and 1.52 for Lokomotiv Moskva - with over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams scoring at 62%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Rodina Moskva 1-1 Lokomotiv Moskva
Rodina Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 37%
- 2. 3 or more goals 58% by the model, 3.03 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 62% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.4 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 corners or fewer 6.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Rodina Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva: questions and answers
When is Rodina Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva?
Rodina Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva is on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 16:00 UTC, in Russian Premier League Gameweek 15.
Who will win Rodina Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva?
It is close: Rodina Moskva 37%, draw 25%, Lokomotiv Moskva 37%. Our prediction is Rodina Moskva 1-1 Lokomotiv Moskva.
Who is the player to watch in Rodina Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva?
Evgeniy Morozov of Lokomotiv Moskva: a stopper with a Moneyball Score of 27 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Rodina Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.