Alaves vs Atletico Madrid: Prediction, Odds and Preview
La Liga · Saturday 10 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
Alaves host Atletico Madrid in the La Liga on Saturday 10 October 2026. The bookmakers make Atletico Madrid narrow favourites at 47%, with the draw at 27% and Alaves at 26%, once the margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Alaves +0.25 at 2.21, Atletico Madrid at 1.72. The main goals line is 2.5: over 1.92, under 1.97, which gives over 51%.
Form in numbers
- Atletico Madrid create more: 1.72 expected goals a match against 1.14 for Alaves.
- Atletico Madrid give away less, 1.05 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Alaves 12.4 (4.4 on target), Atletico Madrid 16.9 (6.4 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): Alaves 44.8%, Atletico Madrid 67.7%.
| Alaves | Per match | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 1.14 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.72 |
| 1.23 | xG conceded | 1.05 |
| 1.57 | Goals | 2.29 |
| 12.4 | Shots | 16.9 |
| 4.4 | Shots on target | 6.4 |
| 1.6 | Big chances missed | 1.9 |
| 44.8 | Pressure share % | 67.7 |
| 19.0 | Tackles | 17.0 |
| 13.4 | Fouls | 12.4 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 7 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Alaves won 0, drew 2 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan 2026 | Atletico Madrid | 1 – 0 | Alaves |
| 30 Aug 2025 | Alaves | 1 – 1 | Atletico Madrid |
| 3 May 2025 | Alaves | 0 – 0 | Atletico Madrid |
| 23 Nov 2024 | Atletico Madrid | 2 – 1 | Alaves |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Alaves vs Atletico Madrid in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.