Real Madrid vs Villarreal: Prediction, Odds and Preview
La Liga · Sunday 11 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
Real Madrid host Villarreal in the La Liga on Sunday 11 October 2026. The bookmakers make Real Madrid clear favourites at 73%, with the draw at 15% and Villarreal at 12%, once the margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.4% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Real Madrid -1.75 at 1.76, Villarreal at 2.16. The main goals line is 3.75: over 1.95, under 1.93, which gives over 50%.
Form in numbers
- Real Madrid create more: 2.41 expected goals a match against 2.28 for Villarreal.
- Real Madrid give away less, 1.20 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Real Madrid 18.9 (7.6 on target), Villarreal 16.0 (6.6 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): Real Madrid 70.5%, Villarreal 69.1%.
| Real Madrid | Per match | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| 2.41 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.28 |
| 1.20 | xG conceded | 1.34 |
| 2.57 | Goals | 1.86 |
| 18.9 | Shots | 16.0 |
| 7.6 | Shots on target | 6.6 |
| 2.6 | Big chances missed | 2.4 |
| 70.5 | Pressure share % | 69.1 |
| 15.0 | Tackles | 14.9 |
| 8.4 | Fouls | 10.7 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 7 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Real Madrid won 4, drew 0 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2026 | Villarreal | 0 – 2 | Real Madrid |
| 4 Oct 2025 | Real Madrid | 3 – 1 | Villarreal |
| 15 Mar 2025 | Villarreal | 1 – 2 | Real Madrid |
| 5 Oct 2024 | Real Madrid | 2 – 0 | Villarreal |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Real Madrid vs Villarreal in the Match Centre Follow it live
More La Liga previews
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- Barcelona vs Getafe Sunday 11 October 2026
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.