Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao: Prediction, Odds and Preview
La Liga · Saturday 10 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
Rayo Vallecano host Athletic Bilbao in the La Liga on Saturday 10 October 2026. The prices see little between them: Rayo Vallecano 31%, the draw 28%, Athletic Bilbao 41% once the bookmaker's margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Rayo Vallecano 0 at 2.21, Athletic Bilbao at 1.72. The main goals line is 2.5: over 1.94, under 1.94, which gives over 50%.
Form in numbers
- Athletic Bilbao create more: 1.55 expected goals a match against 1.34 for Rayo Vallecano.
- Athletic Bilbao give away less, 1.29 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Rayo Vallecano 13.4 (4.6 on target), Athletic Bilbao 15.7 (4.7 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): Rayo Vallecano 42.7%, Athletic Bilbao 62.9%.
| Rayo Vallecano | Per match | Athletic Bilbao |
|---|---|---|
| 1.34 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.55 |
| 1.90 | xG conceded | 1.29 |
| 1.57 | Goals | 1.17 |
| 13.4 | Shots | 15.7 |
| 4.6 | Shots on target | 4.7 |
| 1.1 | Big chances missed | 1.5 |
| 42.7 | Pressure share % | 62.9 |
| 17.4 | Tackles | 16.3 |
| 13.4 | Fouls | 11.0 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 6 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Rayo Vallecano won 0, drew 1 and lost 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb 2026 | Rayo Vallecano | 1 – 1 | Athletic Bilbao |
| 25 Aug 2025 | Athletic Bilbao | 1 – 0 | Rayo Vallecano |
| 13 Apr 2025 | Athletic Bilbao | 3 – 1 | Rayo Vallecano |
| 1 Dec 2024 | Rayo Vallecano | 1 – 2 | Athletic Bilbao |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.