Elche CF vs Celta Vigo: Prediction, Odds and Preview
La Liga · Sunday 11 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
Elche CF host Celta Vigo in the La Liga on Sunday 11 October 2026. The prices see little between them: Elche CF 33%, the draw 29%, Celta Vigo 38% once the bookmaker's margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Elche CF 0 at 2.11, Celta Vigo at 1.80. The main goals line is 2.25: over 1.83, under 2.05, which gives over 53%.
Form in numbers
- Elche CF create more: 1.39 expected goals a match against 1.01 for Celta Vigo.
- Celta Vigo give away less, 1.25 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Elche CF 11.3 (5.0 on target), Celta Vigo 10.3 (3.7 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): Elche CF 41.7%, Celta Vigo 51.7%.
| Elche CF | Per match | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| 1.39 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.01 |
| 1.70 | xG conceded | 1.25 |
| 1.57 | Goals | 1.14 |
| 11.3 | Shots | 10.3 |
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 3.7 |
| 1.4 | Big chances missed | 1.1 |
| 41.7 | Pressure share % | 51.7 |
| 15.6 | Tackles | 14.0 |
| 13.6 | Fouls | 10.7 |
| 2.6 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 7 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings Elche CF won 1, drew 0 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2026 | Celta Vigo | 3 – 1 | Elche CF |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Elche CF | 2 – 1 | Celta Vigo |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Elche CF vs Celta Vigo in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.