Angers SCO vs Olympique Marseille: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Ligue 1 · Sunday 18 October 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Stade Raymond Kopa, Angers · updated 2026-10-09
Angers SCO host Olympique Marseille in Ligue 1 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Stade Raymond Kopa. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Angers SCO favourites at 49%, puts the draw at 24% and expects about 3.1 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Angers SCO 1.82, Olympique Marseille 1.29.
- Over 2.5 goals: 60% · both teams to score: 61%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Amine Sbaï
Amine Sbaï, 25 · Angers SCO · LWF · Creative winger
Moneyball Scout picks Amine Sbaï as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 69, defensive 33).
- Key passes: 3.58 per 90 minutes, better than 97% of wingers
- Expected assists (est.): 0.42 per 90 minutes, better than 92% of wingers
- Big chances created: 0.63 per 90 minutes, better than 79% of wingers
Olympique Marseille concede 1.6 goals a match this season (2.11 expected), more than the league's average: the space a creative winger like Amine Sbaï lives on.
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Angers SCO | Per match this season | Olympique Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 1.62 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.65 |
| 1.62 | xG conceded | 2.11 |
| 15.0 | Shots | 13.2 |
| 3.0 | On target | 4.8 |
| 51.2 | Possession % | 56.4 |
| 40% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 7.6 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.91 | Average rating | 6.87 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Angers SCO
- Anthony Lopes goalkeeper · rating 7.85 · 5 apps
- Branco van den Boomen midfielder · rating 7.44 · 5 apps
- Amine Sbaï midfielder · rating 7.34 · 5 apps
Olympique Marseille
- Amine Gouiri forward · rating 7.61 · 5 apps
- Pierre-Emile Højbjerg midfielder · rating 7.28 · 5 apps
- Jeffrey de Lange goalkeeper · rating 7.18 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Lens vs Olympique Lyonnais Friday 9 October 2026
- Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans Saturday 10 October 2026
- Monaco vs Toulouse Saturday 10 October 2026
- Lorient vs Paris Saturday 10 October 2026
- Brest vs Angers SCO Saturday 10 October 2026
- Troyes vs Olympique Marseille Sunday 11 October 2026
- Le Mans vs Toulouse Friday 16 October 2026
- Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.