Monaco vs Toulouse: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Ligue 1 · Saturday 10 October 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Stade Louis II., Monaco · updated 2026-10-09
Monaco host Toulouse in Ligue 1 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Stade Louis II.. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Monaco favourites at 51%, puts the draw at 25% and expects about 3.0 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Monaco 1.79, Toulouse 1.20.
- Over 2.5 goals: 57% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Paris Brunner
Paris Brunner, 20 · Monaco · CF · Poacher
Moneyball Scout picks Paris Brunner as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 53, defensive 43).
- Goals: 0.92 per 90 minutes, better than 84% of centre-forwards
- Shots on target: 56%, better than 79% of centre-forwards
- Shots: 3.68 per 90 minutes, better than 76% of centre-forwards
Toulouse concede 1.8 goals a match this season (1.86 expected), more than the league's average: the space a poacher like Paris Brunner lives on.
Scout's notes: Clinical finisher.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Monaco | Per match this season | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 0.6 | Goals conceded | 1.8 |
| 1.18 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.90 |
| 1.48 | xG conceded | 1.86 |
| 10.2 | Shots | 14.8 |
| 4.6 | On target | 4.6 |
| 44.6 | Possession % | 52.6 |
| 40% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 3.6 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.99 | Average rating | 6.83 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Monaco
- Lamine Camara midfielder · rating 7.41 · 5 apps
- Eric Dier defender · rating 7.32 · 5 apps
- Nazinho defender · rating 7.22 · 5 apps
Toulouse
- Cristian Cásseres Jr. midfielder · rating 8.16 · 5 apps
- Thomas Jørgensen midfielder · rating 7.34 · 5 apps
- Rasmus Nicolaisen defender · rating 7.10 · 3 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Lens vs Olympique Lyonnais Friday 9 October 2026
- Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans Saturday 10 October 2026
- Lorient vs Paris Saturday 10 October 2026
- Brest vs Angers SCO Saturday 10 October 2026
- Troyes vs Olympique Marseille Sunday 11 October 2026
- Le Mans vs Toulouse Friday 16 October 2026
- Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 17 October 2026
- Troyes vs Lens Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.