Le Mans vs Toulouse: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Ligue 1 · Friday 16 October 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Stade de La Pincenardière, Mulsanne · updated 2026-10-09
Le Mans host Toulouse in Ligue 1 on Friday 16 October 2026 at Stade de La Pincenardière. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Le Mans favourites at 47%, puts the draw at 22% and expects about 3.6 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Le Mans 2.04, Toulouse 1.60.
- Over 2.5 goals: 70% · both teams to score: 70%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Cristian Cásseres Jr.
Cristian Cásseres Jr., 26 · Toulouse · CMF · Playmaker
Moneyball Scout picks Cristian Cásseres Jr. as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 79 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 59, defensive 72).
- Key passes: 3.60 per 90 minutes, better than 100% of central midfielders
- Expected assists (est.): 0.51 per 90 minutes, better than 100% of central midfielders
- Dispossessed: 0.00 per 90 minutes, better than 100% of central midfielders
Le Mans score 1.8 goals a match this season from 1.67 expected: stopping them runs through Cristian Cásseres Jr..
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, Press-resistant.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Le Mans | Per match this season | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 1.8 |
| 1.67 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.90 |
| 1.76 | xG conceded | 1.86 |
| 10.4 | Shots | 14.8 |
| 5.0 | On target | 4.6 |
| 46.4 | Possession % | 52.6 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 2.6 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.74 | Average rating | 6.83 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Le Mans
- Adil Ali Mohamed Bourabaa midfielder · rating 7.25 · 5 apps
- Louis Mafouta forward · rating 7.25 · 5 apps
- Lucas Calodat defender · rating 6.95 · 5 apps
Toulouse
- Cristian Cásseres Jr. midfielder · rating 8.16 · 5 apps
- Thomas Jørgensen midfielder · rating 7.34 · 5 apps
- Rasmus Nicolaisen defender · rating 7.10 · 3 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Lens vs Olympique Lyonnais Friday 9 October 2026
- Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans Saturday 10 October 2026
- Monaco vs Toulouse Saturday 10 October 2026
- Lorient vs Paris Saturday 10 October 2026
- Brest vs Angers SCO Saturday 10 October 2026
- Troyes vs Olympique Marseille Sunday 11 October 2026
- Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 17 October 2026
- Troyes vs Lens Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.