Troyes vs Olympique Marseille: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Ligue 1 · Sunday 11 October 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Complexe Sportif de l'Aube N° 2 - Terrain du Bas, Troyes · updated 2026-10-09
Troyes host Olympique Marseille in Ligue 1 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Complexe Sportif de l'Aube N° 2 - Terrain du Bas. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Olympique Marseille slight favourites at 38%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 24% and expects about 3.2 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Troyes 1.61, Olympique Marseille 1.64.
- Over 2.5 goals: 63% · both teams to score: 65%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Emerson
Emerson, 32 · Olympique Marseille · LB · Inverted full-back
Moneyball Scout picks Emerson as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 58, defensive 47).
- Passes: 59.39 per 90 minutes, better than 91% of full-backs
- Expected assists (est.): 0.16 per 90 minutes, better than 89% of full-backs
- Accurate crosses: 0.81 per 90 minutes, better than 88% of full-backs
Troyes score 0.8 goals a match this season from 1.43 expected: stopping them runs through Emerson.
Scout's notes: Ball circulator, Creator, Crosser.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Troyes | Per match this season | Olympique Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 2.2 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 1.43 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.65 |
| 1.76 | xG conceded | 2.11 |
| 14.8 | Shots | 13.2 |
| 2.8 | On target | 4.8 |
| 39.2 | Possession % | 56.4 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 7.6 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.73 | Average rating | 6.87 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Troyes
- Adrien Monfray defender · rating 7.10 · 5 apps
- Antoine Mille midfielder · rating 6.99 · 5 apps
- Jérémy Le Douaron forward · rating 6.97 · 3 apps
Olympique Marseille
- Amine Gouiri forward · rating 7.61 · 5 apps
- Pierre-Emile Højbjerg midfielder · rating 7.28 · 5 apps
- Jeffrey de Lange goalkeeper · rating 7.18 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Lens vs Olympique Lyonnais Friday 9 October 2026
- Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans Saturday 10 October 2026
- Monaco vs Toulouse Saturday 10 October 2026
- Lorient vs Paris Saturday 10 October 2026
- Brest vs Angers SCO Saturday 10 October 2026
- Le Mans vs Toulouse Friday 16 October 2026
- Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 17 October 2026
- Troyes vs Lens Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.