Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan · updated 2026-10-09
Ararat-Armenia host AZ Alkmaar in the Europa League on Thursday 22 October 2026 at Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes AZ Alkmaar slight favourites at 36%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 30% and expects about 2.3 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Ararat-Armenia 1.14, AZ Alkmaar 1.16.
- Over 2.5 goals: 40% · both teams to score: 48%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (3 and 1 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Season statistics
| Ararat-Armenia | Per match this season | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matches | 1 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 0.0 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 0.89 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.53 |
| 8.0 | Shots | 11.0 |
| 2.0 | On target | 2.0 |
| 44.0 | Possession % | 55.0 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 0% |
| 3.0 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.52 | Average rating | 6.67 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa League previews
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.