Arsenal vs Everton Prediction and Betting Tips | Premier League Gameweek 8
Premier League · Saturday 24 October 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Emirates Stadium, London · updated 2026-10-10
Arsenal welcome Everton to Emirates Stadium in London in Premier League Gameweek 8 action on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Arsenal have played 6 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 83% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 60% win rate. Everton have played 5 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.6 goals a game and winning 40% of them. Away from home they average 0.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Arsenal are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 27% and Everton at 22%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Arsenal 1.52, Everton 0.93.
- Over 2.5 goals: 44% · both teams to score: 48%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Arsenal: form and key numbers
In style Arsenal keep the ball, press high, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.89 a match created, 0.92 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.3).
- Shots: 13.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 59.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Everton: form and key numbers
In style Everton are happy without the ball, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.31 a match created, 1.45 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.6).
- Shots: 16.0 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 43.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Arsenal vs Everton: season averages side by side
| Arsenal | Per match this season | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.7 | Goals scored | 1.2 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 0.6 |
| 1.89 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.31 |
| 0.92 | xG conceded | 1.45 |
| 13.0 | Shots | 16.0 |
| 5.0 | On target | 4.6 |
| 59.2 | Possession % | 43.6 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 60% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 4.5 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.88 | Average rating | 6.95 |
Players to watch
Arsenal
- Declan Rice CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 69 · Ball circulator, Long passer (top 3% of his position)
- Ben White RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Hard to dribble past, Creator (top 12% of his position)
Everton
- James Tarkowski CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 70 · Reads the game, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Jordan Pickford GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 61 · Box defender, Long passer (top 28% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Thierno Barry
Thierno Barry, 23 · Everton · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 62
Thierno Barry, 23, plays as a centre-forward for Everton in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and shots. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 62
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 3.65 / 90 | 90% |
| Shots | 3.65 / 90 | 86% |
| Duels won | 5.80 / 90 | 80% |
| Expected goals | 0.54 / 90 | 71% |
| Goals | 0.43 / 90 | 57% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, High shot volume.
- What Thierno Barry is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Thierno Barry's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Arsenal vs Everton prediction
Arsenal should have more of the ball, with Everton likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.52 for Arsenal and 0.93 for Everton - with over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams scoring at 48%. Arsenal have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Arsenal 1-0 Everton
Arsenal vs Everton betting tips
- Tip 1: Arsenal win or draw (double chance) 78% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 56% by the model, 2.45 goals expected
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Premier League previews
- Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur Saturday 10 October 2026
- Coventry City vs Newcastle United Monday 12 October 2026
- Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest Friday 23 October 2026
- Aston Villa vs Manchester City Saturday 24 October 2026
- Coventry City vs Fulham Saturday 24 October 2026
- Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur Saturday 24 October 2026
Arsenal vs Everton: questions and answers
When is Arsenal vs Everton?
Arsenal vs Everton is on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC, in Premier League Gameweek 8.
Where is Arsenal vs Everton played?
At Emirates Stadium, London, Arsenal's home ground.
Who will win Arsenal vs Everton?
Arsenal are the favourites: Arsenal 50%, draw 27%, Everton 22%. Our prediction is Arsenal 1-0 Everton.
Who is the player to watch in Arsenal vs Everton?
Thierno Barry of Everton: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 62 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Arsenal vs Everton?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 44%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.