Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Premier League · Saturday 10 October 2026 · 16:30 UTC · Old Trafford, Manchester · updated 2026-10-09
Manchester United host Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Old Trafford. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Manchester United clear favourites at 62%, puts the draw at 22% and expects about 2.9 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Manchester United 1.97, Tottenham Hotspur 0.90.
- Over 2.5 goals: 55% · both teams to score: 52%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Marcus Rashford
Marcus Rashford, 28 · Manchester United · LWF · Inside forward
Moneyball Scout picks Marcus Rashford as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 70 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 59, defensive 48).
- Key passes: 3.31 per 90 minutes, better than 96% of wingers
- Dispossessed: 0.25 per 90 minutes, better than 94% of wingers
- Shots: 3.31 per 90 minutes, better than 86% of wingers
Tottenham Hotspur concede 1.6 goals a match this season (1.67 expected), more than the league's average: the space a inside forward like Marcus Rashford lives on.
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Press-resistant, High shot volume.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Manchester United | Per match this season | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 0.4 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 2.07 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.04 |
| 1.04 | xG conceded | 1.67 |
| 22.6 | Shots | 14.2 |
| 5.6 | On target | 3.8 |
| 59.8 | Possession % | 60.6 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 40% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 20% |
| 7.2 | Corners | 7.6 |
| 1.2 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
| 6.91 | Average rating | 6.79 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Manchester United
- Bruno Fernandes midfielder · rating 7.67 · 5 apps
- Matheus Cunha forward · rating 7.27 · 5 apps
- Kobbie Mainoo midfielder · rating 7.19 · 5 apps
Tottenham Hotspur
- Jan Paul van Hecke defender · rating 7.38 · 5 apps
- Savinho midfielder · rating 7.15 · 3 apps
- Sandro Tonali midfielder · rating 7.08 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Premier League previews
- Coventry City vs Newcastle United Monday 12 October 2026
- Everton vs Chelsea Saturday 17 October 2026
- Manchester City vs Ipswich Town Saturday 17 October 2026
- Fulham vs Hull City Saturday 17 October 2026
- Brentford vs Liverpool Saturday 17 October 2026
- Newcastle United vs Aston Villa Saturday 17 October 2026
- Leeds United vs Manchester United Sunday 18 October 2026
- Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace Sunday 18 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.