Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Premier League · Friday 23 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Portman Road Stadium, Ipswich · updated 2026-10-09
Ipswich Town host Nottingham Forest in the Premier League on Friday 23 October 2026 at Portman Road Stadium. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Nottingham Forest slight favourites at 39%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 27% and expects about 2.7 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Ipswich Town 1.29, Nottingham Forest 1.40.
- Over 2.5 goals: 50% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Morgan Gibbs-White
Morgan Gibbs-White, 26 · Nottingham Forest · AMF · Dribbling playmaker
Moneyball Scout picks Morgan Gibbs-White as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 67 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 65, defensive 28).
- Expected assists (est.): 0.46 per 90 minutes, better than 97% of attacking midfielders
- Big chances created: 1.00 per 90 minutes, better than 97% of attacking midfielders
- Key passes: 2.80 per 90 minutes, better than 83% of attacking midfielders
Ipswich Town concede 2.2 goals a match this season (1.71 expected), more than the league's average: the space a dribbling playmaker like Morgan Gibbs-White lives on.
Scout's notes: Creator, Big-chance creator, Chance creator.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Ipswich Town | Per match this season | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 0.8 |
| 2.2 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 1.29 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.50 |
| 1.71 | xG conceded | 1.08 |
| 11.6 | Shots | 16.4 |
| 4.6 | On target | 3.4 |
| 45.0 | Possession % | 47.4 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 3.6 | Corners | 3.4 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 2.6 |
| 6.72 | Average rating | 6.89 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Ipswich Town
- Emersonn forward · rating 7.15 · 5 apps
- Exequiel Palacios midfielder · rating 6.89 · 4 apps
- Issa Diop defender · rating 6.89 · 5 apps
Nottingham Forest
- Morgan Gibbs-White forward · rating 7.52 · 5 apps
- Neco Williams midfielder · rating 7.18 · 5 apps
- James McAtee midfielder · rating 7.11 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Premier League previews
- Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur Saturday 10 October 2026
- Coventry City vs Newcastle United Monday 12 October 2026
- Everton vs Chelsea Saturday 17 October 2026
- Manchester City vs Ipswich Town Saturday 17 October 2026
- Fulham vs Hull City Saturday 17 October 2026
- Brentford vs Liverpool Saturday 17 October 2026
- Newcastle United vs Aston Villa Saturday 17 October 2026
- Leeds United vs Manchester United Sunday 18 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.