Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur Prediction and Betting Tips | Premier League Gameweek 8
Premier League · Saturday 24 October 2026 · 16:30 UTC · Stamford Bridge, London · updated 2026-10-10
Chelsea welcome Tottenham Hotspur to Stamford Bridge in London in Premier League Gameweek 8 action on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 16:30 UTC.
Chelsea have played 5 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.4 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. Tottenham Hotspur have played 5 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 0.4 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Chelsea are narrow favourites at 54%, with the draw at 23% and Tottenham Hotspur at 22%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Chelsea 1.93, Tottenham Hotspur 1.17.
- Over 2.5 goals: 60% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Chelsea: form and key numbers
In style Chelsea are strong in the air, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.55 a match created, 1.71 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.3).
- Shots: 14.4 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 47.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Tottenham Hotspur: form and key numbers
In style Tottenham Hotspur keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.04 a match created, 1.67 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.2).
- Shots: 14.2 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 60.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 20% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur: season averages side by side
| Chelsea | Per match this season | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 0.4 |
| 2.4 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 1.55 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.04 |
| 1.71 | xG conceded | 1.67 |
| 14.4 | Shots | 14.2 |
| 5.2 | On target | 3.8 |
| 47.2 | Possession % | 60.6 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 40% |
| 80% | Both teams scored % | 20% |
| 6.6 | Corners | 7.6 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
| 6.86 | Average rating | 6.79 |
Players to watch
Chelsea
- Wesley Fofana CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 71 · Reads the game, Duel winner (top 3% of his position)
- Cole Palmer AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 70 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 5% of his position)
Tottenham Hotspur
- Jan Paul van Hecke CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 66 · Ball circulator, Secure passer (top 6% of his position)
- Sandro Tonali DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 60 · Disciplined, Hard to dribble past (top 6% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: João Pedro
João Pedro, 25 · Chelsea · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 73
João Pedro, 25, plays as a centre-forward for Chelsea in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in duels won and key passes. Weakest in shots on target. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 73
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 8.50 / 90 | 96% |
| Key passes | 1.75 / 90 | 88% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.50 / 90 | 84% |
| Goals | 0.75 / 90 | 76% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.20 xG/shot | 74% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Chance creator, Dominant in the air.
- What João Pedro is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open João Pedro's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur prediction
Tottenham Hotspur should have more of the ball, with Chelsea likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Chelsea are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Tottenham Hotspur like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.93 for Chelsea and 1.17 for Tottenham Hotspur - with over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams scoring at 60%. Chelsea have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Chelsea 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur betting tips
- Tip 1: Chelsea win or draw (double chance) 78% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 60% by the model, 3.10 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 14.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Premier League previews
- Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur Saturday 10 October 2026
- Coventry City vs Newcastle United Monday 12 October 2026
- Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest Friday 23 October 2026
- Aston Villa vs Manchester City Saturday 24 October 2026
- Coventry City vs Fulham Saturday 24 October 2026
- Arsenal vs Everton Saturday 24 October 2026
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur: questions and answers
When is Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur is on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 16:30 UTC, in Premier League Gameweek 8.
Where is Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur played?
At Stamford Bridge, London, Chelsea's home ground.
Who will win Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Chelsea are the favourites: Chelsea 54%, draw 23%, Tottenham Hotspur 22%. Our prediction is Chelsea 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur.
Who is the player to watch in Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur?
João Pedro of Chelsea: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 73 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.