Aston Villa vs Fulham Prediction and Betting Tips
Premier League · Sunday 1 November 2026 · updated 2026-10-26
Aston Villa welcome Fulham to Villa Park in Birmingham in Premier League action on Sunday 1 November 2026.
Aston Villa have played 8 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 38% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 33% win rate. Fulham have played 8 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 0.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Aston Villa are narrow favourites at 45%, with the draw at 27% and Fulham at 28%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Aston Villa -0.5 at 2.03, Fulham at 1.88. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.89, under 2.00, which gives over 51%.
Aston Villa: form and key numbers
In style Aston Villa are happy without the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.13 a match created, 1.68 conceded (goals minus xG: 0.0).
- Shots: 11.4 a match, 3.0 on target.
- Possession: 46.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.71.
Fulham: form and key numbers
In style Fulham keep the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.52 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.1).
- Shots: 14.4 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 58.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 38% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
Aston Villa vs Fulham: season averages side by side
| Aston Villa | Per match | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| 1.13 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.52 |
| 1.68 | xG conceded | 1.23 |
| 1.13 | Goals | 1.00 |
| 11.4 | Shots | 14.4 |
| 3.0 | Shots on target | 4.5 |
| 0.9 | Big chances missed | 1.9 |
| 34.0 | Pressure share % | 51.4 |
| 19.0 | Tackles | 14.9 |
| 12.0 | Fouls | 10.5 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 8 and 8 measured matches.
Aston Villa vs Fulham: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Aston Villa have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Aston Villa 7, Fulham 3 - 2.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Fulham 1-0 Aston Villa (April 25th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Aston Villa won 3, drew 0 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | Fulham | 1 – 0 | Aston Villa |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Aston Villa | 3 – 1 | Fulham |
| 3 May 2025 | Aston Villa | 1 – 0 | Fulham |
| 19 Oct 2024 | Fulham | 1 – 3 | Aston Villa |
Players to watch
Aston Villa
- Zion Suzuki GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 70 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
- Aaron Wan-Bissaka RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 61 · Ball-winner, Reads the game (top 4% of his position)
Fulham
- Shea Charles DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 70 · Blocks shots, Disciplined (top 1% of his position)
- Antonee Robinson LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 61 · Chance creator, Crosser (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Johan Manzambi
Johan Manzambi, 21 · Aston Villa · AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 71
Johan Manzambi, 21, plays as an attacking midfielder for Aston Villa in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in shots and dispossessed. Weakest in expected assists (est.). Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 71
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 68
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 58
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 4.18 / 90 | 96% |
| Dispossessed | 0.28 / 90 | 94% |
| Expected goals | 0.47 / 90 | 91% |
| Fouls won | 2.51 / 90 | 91% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.67 / 90 | 80% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★½ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Press-resistant, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Johan Manzambi is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Johan Manzambi's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Aston Villa vs Fulham prediction
Fulham should have more of the ball, with Aston Villa likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.24 for Aston Villa and 1.30 for Fulham - with over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams scoring at 52%. Aston Villa have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Aston Villa 2-1 Fulham
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Aston Villa vs Fulham betting tips
- Tip 1: Aston Villa win or draw (double chance) 72% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 53% by the model, 2.54 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Aston Villa vs Fulham in the Match Centre Follow it live
More Premier League previews
- Sunderland vs Leeds United Monday 26 October 2026
- Chelsea vs Manchester United Saturday 31 October 2026
- Bournemouth AFC vs Leeds United Saturday 31 October 2026
- Brentford vs Nottingham Forest Saturday 31 October 2026
- Coventry City vs Sunderland Saturday 31 October 2026
- Hull City vs Ipswich Town Saturday 31 October 2026
Aston Villa vs Fulham: questions and answers
When is Aston Villa vs Fulham?
Aston Villa vs Fulham is on Sunday 1 November 2026, in the Premier League.
Where is Aston Villa vs Fulham played?
At Villa Park, Birmingham, Aston Villa's home ground.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Fulham?
Aston Villa are the favourites: Aston Villa 45%, draw 27%, Fulham 28%. Our prediction is Aston Villa 2-1 Fulham.
Who is the player to watch in Aston Villa vs Fulham?
Johan Manzambi of Aston Villa: a shadow striker with a Moneyball Score of 71 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Aston Villa vs Fulham?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.