Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad Prediction and Betting Tips | La Liga Gameweek 11
La Liga · Sunday 1 November 2026 · updated 2026-11-01
Athletic Bilbao welcome Real Sociedad to San Mamés Barria in Bilbao in La Liga Gameweek 11 action on Sunday 1 November 2026.
Athletic Bilbao have played 9 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 67% win rate. Real Sociedad have played 10 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 60% of them. Away from home they average 2.4 goals scored and 2.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Athletic Bilbao are narrow favourites at 42%, with the draw at 27% and Real Sociedad at 30%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Athletic Bilbao -0.25 at 1.90, Real Sociedad at 2.00. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.92, under 1.97, which gives over 51%.
Athletic Bilbao: form and key numbers
In style Athletic Bilbao keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.47 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.3).
- Shots: 15.0 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 55.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 56% of matches (60% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Real Sociedad: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.35 a match created, 1.67 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.5).
- Shots: 14.5 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 50.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 10% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 70% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad: season averages side by side
| Athletic Bilbao | Per match | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| 1.47 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.35 |
| 1.23 | xG conceded | 1.67 |
| 1.33 | Goals | 1.90 |
| 15.0 | Shots | 14.5 |
| 4.2 | Shots on target | 5.2 |
| 1.0 | Big chances missed | 1.8 |
| 61.6 | Pressure share % | 49.2 |
| 15.3 | Tackles | 17.9 |
| 11.7 | Fouls | 12.4 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 9 and 10 measured matches.
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Athletic Bilbao have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Athletic Bilbao 4, Real Sociedad 4 - 2.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Real Sociedad (February 1st 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Athletic Bilbao won 1, drew 2 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2026 | Athletic Bilbao | 1 – 1 | Real Sociedad |
| 1 Nov 2025 | Real Sociedad | 3 – 2 | Athletic Bilbao |
| 4 May 2025 | Real Sociedad | 0 – 0 | Athletic Bilbao |
| 24 Nov 2024 | Athletic Bilbao | 1 – 0 | Real Sociedad |
Players to watch
Athletic Bilbao
- Yuri Berchiche LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 70 · Ball circulator, Chance creator (top 2% of his position)
- Álex Berenguer LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 63 · Chance creator, Creator (top 9% of his position)
Real Sociedad
- Jon Martín Vicente CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 72 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 2% of his position)
- Jon Gorrotxategi DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 69 · Blocks shots, Disciplined (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Gonçalo Guedes
Gonçalo Guedes, 29 · Real Sociedad · LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 68
Gonçalo Guedes, 29, plays as a winger for Real Sociedad in La Liga. Strongest for his role in shots and fouls won. Weakest in accurate crosses. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 68
- LM · Wide midfielder Natural, 65
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 65
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 3.91 / 90 | 89% |
| Fouls won | 1.24 / 90 | 88% |
| Expected goals | 0.37 / 90 | 83% |
| Key passes | 2.06 / 90 | 79% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.20 / 90 | 78% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Draws fouls, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Gonçalo Guedes is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Gonçalo Guedes's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad prediction
Athletic Bilbao should have more of the ball; Athletic Bilbao work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.75 for Athletic Bilbao and 1.19 for Real Sociedad - with over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams scoring at 58%. Athletic Bilbao have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Real Sociedad
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad betting tips
- Tip 1: Athletic Bilbao win or draw (double chance) 70% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 56% by the model, 2.94 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 8.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 12.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad: questions and answers
When is Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad?
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad is on Sunday 1 November 2026, in La Liga Gameweek 11.
Where is Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad played?
At San Mamés Barria, Bilbao, Athletic Bilbao's home ground.
Who will win Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad?
Athletic Bilbao are the favourites: Athletic Bilbao 42%, draw 27%, Real Sociedad 30%. Our prediction is Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Real Sociedad.
Who is the player to watch in Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad?
Gonçalo Guedes of Real Sociedad: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 68 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Tags
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