Barcelona vs Alaves Prediction and Betting Tips
La Liga · Sunday 1 November 2026 · updated 2026-10-26
Barcelona welcome Alaves to Spotify Camp Nou in Barcelona in La Liga action on Sunday 1 November 2026.
Barcelona have played 10 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 4.0 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 90% of them. At home they average 3.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 44% win rate. Alaves have played 10 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 30% of them. Away from home they average 0.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Barcelona are clear favourites at 82%, with the draw at 11% and Alaves at 7%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.5% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Barcelona -2.5 at 1.88, Alaves at 2.03. The main goals line is 4: over 1.95, under 1.93, which gives over 50%.
Barcelona: form and key numbers
In style Barcelona keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 3.17 a match created, 0.95 conceded (goals minus xG: +8.3).
- Shots: 20.9 a match, 8.2 on target.
- Possession: 69.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.17.
Alaves: form and key numbers
In style Alaves are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.30 a match created, 1.25 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.0).
- Shots: 13.3 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 43.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 30% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Barcelona vs Alaves: season averages side by side
| Barcelona | Per match | Alaves |
|---|---|---|
| 3.17 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.30 |
| 0.95 | xG conceded | 1.25 |
| 4.00 | Goals | 1.40 |
| 20.9 | Shots | 13.3 |
| 8.2 | Shots on target | 4.7 |
| 3.8 | Big chances missed | 1.2 |
| 82.8 | Pressure share % | 50.1 |
| 16.3 | Tackles | 19.1 |
| 10.2 | Fouls | 13.7 |
| 1.5 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 10 and 10 measured matches.
Barcelona vs Alaves: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Barcelona have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Barcelona 7, Alaves 2 - 2.3 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Alaves 1-0 Barcelona (May 13th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Barcelona won 3, drew 0 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 May 2026 | Alaves | 1 – 0 | Barcelona |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Barcelona | 3 – 1 | Alaves |
| 2 Feb 2025 | Barcelona | 1 – 0 | Alaves |
| 6 Oct 2024 | Alaves | 0 – 3 | Barcelona |
Players to watch
Barcelona
- Karim Adeyemi RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 85 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 1% of his position)
- Dani Olmo AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 84 · Creator, Big-chance creator (top 2% of his position)
Alaves
- Ángel Pérez RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 65 · Press-resistant, Crosser (top 2% of his position)
- Antonio Sivera GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 60 · Long passer, Box defender (top 6% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Lamine Yamal
Lamine Yamal, 19 · FC Barcelona · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 91
Lamine Yamal, 19, plays as a winger for FC Barcelona in La Liga. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 91
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 87
- RM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 80
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 4.33 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.62 / 90 | 100% |
| Shots | 5.74 / 90 | 100% |
| Big chances created | 1.41 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected goals | 0.71 / 90 | 99% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Dribbler, Creator, High shot volume.
- What Lamine Yamal is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Lamine Yamal's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Barcelona vs Alaves prediction
Barcelona should have more of the ball, with Alaves likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Barcelona like to take players on; Alaves work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.8 goals - 2.77 for Barcelona and 0.98 for Alaves - with over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams scoring at 59%. Barcelona have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Barcelona 3-1 Alaves
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Barcelona vs Alaves betting tips
- Tip 1: Barcelona to win 82% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 3.5 goals 52% by the model, 3.75 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More La Liga previews
- Real Sociedad vs Levante Monday 26 October 2026
- Barcelona vs Real Madrid Monday 26 October 2026
- Sevilla vs Osasuna Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Villarreal vs RCD Espanyol Saturday 31 October 2026
- Levante vs Atletico Madrid Saturday 31 October 2026
- Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo Saturday 31 October 2026
Barcelona vs Alaves: questions and answers
When is Barcelona vs Alaves?
Barcelona vs Alaves is on Sunday 1 November 2026, in La Liga.
Where is Barcelona vs Alaves played?
At Spotify Camp Nou, Barcelona, Barcelona's home ground.
Who will win Barcelona vs Alaves?
Barcelona are the favourites: Barcelona 82%, draw 11%, Alaves 7%. Our prediction is Barcelona 3-1 Alaves.
Who is the player to watch in Barcelona vs Alaves?
Lamine Yamal of FC Barcelona: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 91 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Barcelona vs Alaves?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 72%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.