Elche CF vs Valencia Prediction and Betting Tips | La Liga Gameweek 11
La Liga · Sunday 1 November 2026 · updated 2026-11-01
Elche CF welcome Valencia to Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche in La Liga Gameweek 11 action on Sunday 1 November 2026.
Elche CF have played 10 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate. Valencia have played 10 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 10% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Elche CF 39%, the draw 29%, Valencia 32%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.0% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Elche CF -0.25 at 2.03, Valencia at 1.88. The main goals line is 2.5: over 1.98, under 1.90, which gives over 49%.
Elche CF: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.35 a match created, 1.55 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.5).
- Shots: 11.5 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 50.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 30% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.75.
Valencia: form and key numbers
In style Valencia are happy without the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.03 a match created, 1.45 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.3).
- Shots: 10.9 a match, 2.9 on target.
- Possession: 45.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 30% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.68.
Elche CF vs Valencia: season averages side by side
| Elche CF | Per match | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| 1.35 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.03 |
| 1.55 | xG conceded | 1.45 |
| 1.40 | Goals | 0.70 |
| 11.5 | Shots | 10.9 |
| 4.7 | Shots on target | 2.9 |
| 1.0 | Big chances missed | 1.3 |
| 42.9 | Pressure share % | 34.0 |
| 15.1 | Tackles | 16.7 |
| 13.2 | Fouls | 11.6 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 10 and 10 measured matches.
Elche CF vs Valencia: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Elche CF have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 0 of the last 2 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Elche CF 2, Valencia 1 - 1.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Elche CF 1-0 Valencia (April 11th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings Elche CF won 1, drew 1 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr 2026 | Elche CF | 1 – 0 | Valencia |
| 10 Jan 2026 | Valencia | 1 – 1 | Elche CF |
Players to watch
Elche CF
- Federico Redondo DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 69 · Secure passer, Reads the game (top 7% of his position)
- Lucas Cepeda LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 58 · Draws fouls, High shot volume (top 16% of his position)
Valencia
- Guido Rodríguez DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 63 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- César Tárrega CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 59 · Box defender, Reads the game (top 12% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Fer Niño
Fer Niño, 26 · Elche · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 71
Fer Niño, 26, plays as a centre-forward for Elche in La Liga. Strongest for his role in shots on target and shot quality (xG per shot). Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 71
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 61
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots on target | 63% | 97% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.22 xG/shot | 94% |
| Duels won | 7.61 / 90 | 91% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.59 / 90 | 88% |
| Goals | 0.86 / 90 | 85% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
Scout's notes: Accurate shooter, Takes high-quality shots, Duel winner.
- What Fer Niño is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Elche CF vs Valencia prediction
Elche CF should have more of the ball, with Valencia likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Valencia like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.61 for Elche CF and 1.01 for Valencia - with over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 51%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Elche CF 1-1 Valencia
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Elche CF vs Valencia betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 39%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.61 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (49%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.9 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 8.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Elche CF vs Valencia: questions and answers
When is Elche CF vs Valencia?
Elche CF vs Valencia is on Sunday 1 November 2026, in La Liga Gameweek 11.
Where is Elche CF vs Valencia played?
At Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche, Elche CF's home ground.
Who will win Elche CF vs Valencia?
It is close: Elche CF 39%, draw 29%, Valencia 32%. Our prediction is Elche CF 1-1 Valencia.
Who is the player to watch in Elche CF vs Valencia?
Fer Niño of Elche: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 71 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Elche CF vs Valencia?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.