Atlanta United vs Toronto FC Prediction and Betting Tips
Major League Soccer · Sunday 1 November 2026 · updated 2026-11-01
Atlanta United welcome Toronto FC to Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Major League Soccer action on Sunday 1 November 2026.
Atlanta United have played 32 matches in Major League Soccer this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 16 matches, with a 50% win rate. Toronto FC have played 32 matches in Major League Soccer this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 28% of them. Away from home they average 0.9 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 15 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Atlanta United 40%, the draw 26%, Toronto FC 33%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Atlanta United -0.25 at 1.89, Toronto FC at 1.84. The main goals line is 3.25: over 1.90, under 1.80, which gives over 49%.
Atlanta United: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.49 a match created, 1.52 conceded (goals minus xG: -7.5).
- Shots: 13.3 a match, 4.1 on target.
- Possession: 50.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (25% at home).
- Both teams scored in 66% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
Toronto FC: form and key numbers
In style Toronto FC are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.30 a match created, 1.87 conceded (goals minus xG: +8.5).
- Shots: 12.2 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 45.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 78% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
Atlanta United vs Toronto FC: season averages side by side
| Atlanta United | Per match | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|
| 1.49 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.30 |
| 1.52 | xG conceded | 1.87 |
| 1.25 | Goals | 1.56 |
| 13.3 | Shots | 12.2 |
| 4.1 | Shots on target | 4.5 |
| 1.2 | Big chances missed | 1.3 |
| 47.7 | Pressure share % | 43.9 |
| 15.8 | Tackles | 14.3 |
| 11.5 | Fouls | 11.1 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 32 and 32 measured matches.
Atlanta United vs Toronto FC: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Atlanta United have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of the last 5 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Atlanta United 5, Toronto FC 5 - 2.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Toronto FC 1-2 Atlanta United (April 25th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 5 meetings Atlanta United won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | Toronto FC | 1 – 2 | Atlanta United |
| 24 Aug 2025 | Atlanta United | 0 – 0 | Toronto FC |
| 12 Jul 2025 | Toronto FC | 1 – 1 | Atlanta United |
| 29 Jun 2024 | Atlanta United | 2 – 1 | Toronto FC |
| 23 Mar 2024 | Toronto FC | 2 – 0 | Atlanta United |
Players to watch
Atlanta United
- Miguel Almirón RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 42 · Gets into scoring positions, Crosser (top 25% of his position)
- Steven Alzate CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 35 · Secure passer, Dribbler (top 23% of his position)
Toronto FC
- Raheem Edwards LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 40 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 3% of his position)
- Djordje Mihailovic AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 30 · Press-resistant, Through-ball threat (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Alonso Coello
Alonso Coello, 27 · Toronto · CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 45
Alonso Coello, 27, plays as a central midfielder for Toronto in the MLS. Strongest for his role in key passes and interceptions. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 45
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 40
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 2.80 / 90 | 94% |
| Interceptions | 1.97 / 90 | 89% |
| Long balls | 3.76 / 90 | 86% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.24 / 90 | 80% |
| Dispossessed | 0.48 / 90 | 66% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★★ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
- ★★ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Reads the game, Long passer.
- What Alonso Coello is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Alonso Coello's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Atlanta United vs Toronto FC prediction
Atlanta United should have more of the ball, with Toronto FC likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Toronto FC work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals - 2.02 for Atlanta United and 1.53 for Toronto FC - with over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams scoring at 69%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Atlanta United 2-2 Toronto FC
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Atlanta United vs Toronto FC betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 69% by the model, 3.56 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 69% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 9.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Atlanta United vs Toronto FC in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Atlanta United vs Toronto FC: questions and answers
When is Atlanta United vs Toronto FC?
Atlanta United vs Toronto FC is on Sunday 1 November 2026, in Major League Soccer.
Where is Atlanta United vs Toronto FC played?
At Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta United's home ground.
Who will win Atlanta United vs Toronto FC?
It is close: Atlanta United 40%, draw 26%, Toronto FC 33%. Our prediction is Atlanta United 2-2 Toronto FC.
Who is the player to watch in Atlanta United vs Toronto FC?
Alonso Coello of Toronto: a playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 45 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Atlanta United vs Toronto FC?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 69%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.