Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo Prediction and Betting Tips
Major League Soccer · Sunday 1 November 2026 · updated 2026-11-01
Portland Timbers welcome Houston Dynamo to Providence Park in Portland in Major League Soccer action on Sunday 1 November 2026.
Portland Timbers have played 32 matches in Major League Soccer this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 34% of them. At home they average 2.1 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 16 matches, with a 73% win rate. Houston Dynamo have played 32 matches in Major League Soccer this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 44% of them. Away from home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 16 matches, with a 43% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Portland Timbers are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 26% and Houston Dynamo at 25%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Portland Timbers -0.75 at 1.94, Houston Dynamo at 1.78. The main goals line is 3: over 1.89, under 1.83, which gives over 49%.
Portland Timbers: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.51 a match created, 1.43 conceded (goals minus xG: +8.6).
- Shots: 13.7 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 50.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 6% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Houston Dynamo: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.10 a match created, 1.61 conceded (goals minus xG: +6.8).
- Shots: 12.6 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 47.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 41% of matches (46% away).
- Both teams scored in 41% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 8.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo: season averages side by side
| Portland Timbers | Per match | Houston Dynamo |
|---|---|---|
| 1.51 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.10 |
| 1.43 | xG conceded | 1.61 |
| 1.78 | Goals | 1.31 |
| 13.7 | Shots | 12.6 |
| 4.7 | Shots on target | 4.2 |
| 1.5 | Big chances missed | 1.3 |
| 55.1 | Pressure share % | 45.8 |
| 14.9 | Tackles | 13.5 |
| 9.7 | Fouls | 10.2 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 32 and 32 measured matches.
Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Portland Timbers have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of the last 5 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Portland Timbers 7, Houston Dynamo 8 - 3.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Houston Dynamo 3-2 Portland Timbers (March 15th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 5 meetings Portland Timbers won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 2026 | Houston Dynamo | 3 – 2 | Portland Timbers |
| 21 Sep 2025 | Houston Dynamo | 1 – 0 | Portland Timbers |
| 30 Mar 2025 | Portland Timbers | 3 – 1 | Houston Dynamo |
| 2 Jun 2024 | Portland Timbers | 2 – 2 | Houston Dynamo |
| 17 Mar 2024 | Houston Dynamo | 1 – 0 | Portland Timbers |
Players to watch
Portland Timbers
- Kevin Kelsy CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 43 · Takes high-quality shots, Dominant in the air (top 10% of his position)
- Kristoffer Velde LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 42 · Draws fouls, Crosser (top 9% of his position)
Houston Dynamo
- Jonathan Bond GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 44 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 5% of his position)
- Jack McGlynn CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 43 · Creator, Chance creator (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Guilherme
Guilherme, 31 · Houston Dynamo · LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 46
Guilherme, 31, plays as a winger for Houston Dynamo in the MLS. Strongest for his role in fouls won and accurate crosses. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 46
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 43
- ST · Centre-forward Accomplished, 37
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls won | 3.44 / 90 | 96% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.26 / 90 | 81% |
| Key passes | 2.46 / 90 | 67% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.32 / 90 | 61% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.27 / 90 | 59% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★½ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Draws fouls, Crosser.
⚠ 15 goals from only 6.8 xG: finishing this far above his chances rarely lasts: check it is not a one-season wonder.
- What Guilherme is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo prediction
Portland Timbers should have more of the ball. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.85 for Portland Timbers and 1.33 for Houston Dynamo - with over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams scoring at 63%. Portland Timbers have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Portland Timbers 2-1 Houston Dynamo
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo betting tips
- Tip 1: Portland Timbers win or draw (double chance) 75% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 62% by the model, 3.18 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 63% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 15.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo: questions and answers
When is Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo?
Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo is on Sunday 1 November 2026, in Major League Soccer.
Where is Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo played?
At Providence Park, Portland, Portland Timbers's home ground.
Who will win Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo?
Portland Timbers are the favourites: Portland Timbers 50%, draw 26%, Houston Dynamo 25%. Our prediction is Portland Timbers 2-1 Houston Dynamo.
Who is the player to watch in Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo?
Guilherme of Houston Dynamo: a classic winger with a Moneyball Score of 46 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.