Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls Prediction and Betting Tips
Major League Soccer · Sunday 1 November 2026 · updated 2026-11-01
Nashville SC welcome New York Red Bulls to GEODIS Park in Major League Soccer action on Sunday 1 November 2026.
Nashville SC have played 32 matches in Major League Soccer this season, scoring 2.1 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 66% of them. At home they average 2.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 16 matches, with a 67% win rate. New York Red Bulls have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Nashville SC are clear favourites at 61%, with the draw at 21% and New York Red Bulls at 18%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.4% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Nashville SC -1.25 at 1.98, New York Red Bulls at 1.74. The main goals line is 3.25: over 1.85, under 1.85, which gives over 50%.
Nashville SC: form and key numbers
In style Nashville SC keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.65 a match created, 1.22 conceded (goals minus xG: +13.2).
- Shots: 12.6 a match, 5.1 on target.
- Possession: 54.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 44% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.96.
Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls: season averages side by side
| Nashville SC | Per match | New York Red Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| 1.65 | Expected goals (xG) | – |
| 1.22 | xG conceded | – |
| 2.06 | Goals | – |
| 12.6 | Shots | – |
| 5.1 | Shots on target | – |
| 1.4 | Big chances missed | – |
| 56.9 | Pressure share % | – |
| 14.5 | Tackles | – |
| 11.8 | Fouls | – |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | – |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 32 and – measured matches.
Players to watch
Nashville SC
- Sam Surridge CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 45 · Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter (top 1% of his position)
- Cristian Espinoza RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 41 · Crosser, Big-chance creator (top 2% of his position)
Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.98 for Nashville SC and 0.92 for New York Red Bulls - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 52%. Nashville SC have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Nashville SC 2-1 New York Red Bulls
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls betting tips
- Tip 1: Nashville SC to win 61% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 55% by the model, 2.90 goals expected
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls: questions and answers
When is Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls?
Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls is on Sunday 1 November 2026, in Major League Soccer.
Where is Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls played?
At GEODIS Park, Nashville SC's home ground.
Who will win Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls?
Nashville SC are the favourites: Nashville SC 61%, draw 21%, New York Red Bulls 18%. Our prediction is Nashville SC 2-1 New York Red Bulls.
How many goals will there be in Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.