New England Revolution vs Inter Miami Prediction and Betting Tips
Major League Soccer · Sunday 1 November 2026 · updated 2026-11-01
New England Revolution welcome Inter Miami to Gillette Stadium in Major League Soccer action on Sunday 1 November 2026.
New England Revolution have played 32 matches in Major League Soccer this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 56% of them. At home they average 1.9 goals scored and 1.1 conceded over 16 matches, with a 61% win rate. Inter Miami have played 32 matches in Major League Soccer this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 47% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 16 matches, with a 60% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: New England Revolution 36%, the draw 25%, Inter Miami 39%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is New England Revolution +0.25 at 1.78, Inter Miami at 1.94. The main goals line is 3.5: over 1.76, under 1.94, which gives over 52%.
New England Revolution: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.53 a match created, 1.54 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.9).
- Shots: 12.1 a match, 4.9 on target.
- Possession: 50.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 19% of matches (83% at home).
- Both teams scored in 63% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.92.
Inter Miami: form and key numbers
In style Inter Miami keep the ball, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.89 a match created, 1.77 conceded (goals minus xG: +14.5).
- Shots: 14.8 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 57.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 19% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.93.
New England Revolution vs Inter Miami: season averages side by side
| New England Revolution | Per match | Inter Miami |
|---|---|---|
| 1.53 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.89 |
| 1.54 | xG conceded | 1.77 |
| 1.69 | Goals | 2.34 |
| 12.1 | Shots | 14.8 |
| 4.9 | Shots on target | 6.0 |
| 1.2 | Big chances missed | 2.1 |
| 54.2 | Pressure share % | 47.1 |
| 12.7 | Tackles | 14.3 |
| 9.5 | Fouls | 13.0 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 2.6 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 32 and 32 measured matches.
New England Revolution vs Inter Miami: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- New England Revolution have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of the last 5 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: New England Revolution 6, Inter Miami 17 - 4.6 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Inter Miami 1-1 New England Revolution (April 25th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 5 meetings New England Revolution won 0, drew 1 and lost 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | Inter Miami | 1 – 1 | New England Revolution |
| 4 Oct 2025 | Inter Miami | 4 – 1 | New England Revolution |
| 9 Jul 2025 | New England Revolution | 1 – 2 | Inter Miami |
| 19 Oct 2024 | Inter Miami | 6 – 2 | New England Revolution |
| 27 Apr 2024 | New England Revolution | 1 – 4 | Inter Miami |
Players to watch
New England Revolution
- Jack Harrison LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 48 · Crosser, Big-chance creator (top 2% of his position)
- Carles Gil AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 43 · Secure passer, Through-ball threat (top 9% of his position)
Inter Miami
- Yannick Bright DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 46 · Ball-winner, Secure passer (top 9% of his position)
- Casemiro DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 46 · Blocks shots, Long passer (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Lionel Messi
Lionel Messi, 39 · Inter Miami · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 60
Lionel Messi, 39, plays as a winger for Inter Miami in the MLS. Strongest for his role in shots and expected goals. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 60
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 57
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 57
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 6.34 / 90 | 99% |
| Expected goals | 0.71 / 90 | 98% |
| Big chances created | 0.80 / 90 | 93% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.39 / 90 | 90% |
| Key passes | 2.64 / 90 | 72% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions, Big-chance creator.
- What Lionel Messi is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Lionel Messi's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
New England Revolution vs Inter Miami prediction
Inter Miami should have more of the ball, with New England Revolution likely to sit in a compact block and look to break. Moneyball's model expects about 4.2 goals - 2.19 for New England Revolution and 1.98 for Inter Miami - with over 2.5 goals at 79% and both teams scoring at 77%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: New England Revolution 2-2 Inter Miami
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
New England Revolution vs Inter Miami betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 39%
- Tip 2: Over 3.5 goals 60% by the model, 4.17 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 77% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 8.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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New England Revolution vs Inter Miami: questions and answers
When is New England Revolution vs Inter Miami?
New England Revolution vs Inter Miami is on Sunday 1 November 2026, in Major League Soccer.
Where is New England Revolution vs Inter Miami played?
At Gillette Stadium, New England Revolution's home ground.
Who will win New England Revolution vs Inter Miami?
It is close: New England Revolution 36%, draw 25%, Inter Miami 39%. Our prediction is New England Revolution 2-2 Inter Miami.
Who is the player to watch in New England Revolution vs Inter Miami?
Lionel Messi of Inter Miami: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 60 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in New England Revolution vs Inter Miami?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 79%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.