Augsburg vs Bayern Munich: Prediction, Odds and Preview
Bundesliga · Saturday 10 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
Augsburg host Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga on Saturday 10 October 2026. The bookmakers make Bayern Munich clear favourites at 74%, with the draw at 14% and Augsburg at 12%, once the margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Augsburg +2 at 2.12, Bayern Munich at 1.79. The main goals line is 4.5: over 2.00, under 1.89, which gives over 49%.
Form in numbers
- Bayern Munich create more: 2.51 expected goals a match against 1.83 for Augsburg.
- Bayern Munich give away less, 0.69 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Augsburg 14.0 (7.3 on target), Bayern Munich 21.8 (8.8 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): Augsburg 31.0%, Bayern Munich 92.4%.
| Augsburg | Per match | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|---|
| 1.83 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.51 |
| 2.31 | xG conceded | 0.69 |
| 2.75 | Goals | 3.50 |
| 14.0 | Shots | 21.8 |
| 7.3 | Shots on target | 8.8 |
| 2.0 | Big chances missed | 3.3 |
| 31.0 | Pressure share % | 92.4 |
| 16.5 | Tackles | 13.0 |
| 8.8 | Fouls | 10.5 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 4 and 4 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Augsburg won 1, drew 0 and lost 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2026 | Bayern Munich | 1 – 2 | Augsburg |
| 30 Aug 2025 | Augsburg | 2 – 3 | Bayern Munich |
| 4 Apr 2025 | Augsburg | 1 – 3 | Bayern Munich |
| 22 Nov 2024 | Bayern Munich | 3 – 0 | Augsburg |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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More Bundesliga previews
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.