TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV: Prediction, Odds and Preview
Bundesliga · Saturday 10 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
TSG Hoffenheim host Hamburger SV in the Bundesliga on Saturday 10 October 2026. The bookmakers make TSG Hoffenheim clear favourites at 67%, with the draw at 19% and Hamburger SV at 15%, once the margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.5% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is TSG Hoffenheim -1.25 at 1.79, Hamburger SV at 2.12. The main goals line is 3.5: over 2.00, under 1.89, which gives over 49%.
Form in numbers
- TSG Hoffenheim create more: 1.83 expected goals a match against 0.87 for Hamburger SV.
- TSG Hoffenheim give away less, 1.66 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: TSG Hoffenheim 19.0 (5.0 on target), Hamburger SV 9.5 (3.8 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): TSG Hoffenheim 61.2%, Hamburger SV 26.6%.
| TSG Hoffenheim | Per match | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| 1.83 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.87 |
| 1.66 | xG conceded | 1.98 |
| 1.75 | Goals | 0.50 |
| 19.0 | Shots | 9.5 |
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 3.8 |
| 2.8 | Big chances missed | 1.0 |
| 61.2 | Pressure share % | 26.6 |
| 15.8 | Tackles | 14.3 |
| 14.0 | Fouls | 14.5 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 4 and 4 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings TSG Hoffenheim won 2, drew 0 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | Hamburger SV | 1 – 2 | TSG Hoffenheim |
| 13 Dec 2025 | TSG Hoffenheim | 4 – 1 | Hamburger SV |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV in the Match Centre Follow it live
More Bundesliga previews
- Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Saturday 10 October 2026
- Augsburg vs Bayern Munich Saturday 10 October 2026
- FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen Saturday 10 October 2026
- Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg Saturday 10 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.