FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen: Prediction, Odds and Preview
Bundesliga · Saturday 10 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
FSV Mainz 05 host Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga on Saturday 10 October 2026. The bookmakers make Bayer Leverkusen narrow favourites at 42%, with the draw at 25% and FSV Mainz 05 at 33%, once the margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is FSV Mainz 05 0 at 2.20, Bayer Leverkusen at 1.74. The main goals line is 3.25: over 2.00, under 1.89, which gives over 49%.
Form in numbers
- Bayer Leverkusen create more: 2.53 expected goals a match against 2.31 for FSV Mainz 05.
- Bayer Leverkusen give away less, 0.89 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: FSV Mainz 05 18.3 (6.3 on target), Bayer Leverkusen 22.5 (6.3 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): FSV Mainz 05 70.9%, Bayer Leverkusen 75.0%.
| FSV Mainz 05 | Per match | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| 2.31 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.53 |
| 1.56 | xG conceded | 0.89 |
| 2.50 | Goals | 2.50 |
| 18.3 | Shots | 22.5 |
| 6.3 | Shots on target | 6.3 |
| 2.0 | Big chances missed | 2.8 |
| 70.9 | Pressure share % | 75.0 |
| 17.0 | Tackles | 13.3 |
| 13.0 | Fouls | 13.0 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 4 and 4 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings FSV Mainz 05 won 0, drew 2 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 – 1 | FSV Mainz 05 |
| 18 Oct 2025 | FSV Mainz 05 | 3 – 4 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 17 May 2025 | FSV Mainz 05 | 2 – 2 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 14 Jan 2025 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 – 0 | FSV Mainz 05 |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen in the Match Centre Follow it live
More Bundesliga previews
- Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Saturday 10 October 2026
- TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV Saturday 10 October 2026
- Augsburg vs Bayern Munich Saturday 10 October 2026
- Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg Saturday 10 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.