Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen: Prediction, Odds and Preview
Bundesliga · Saturday 10 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
Borussia Dortmund host Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga on Saturday 10 October 2026. The bookmakers make Borussia Dortmund clear favourites at 67%, with the draw at 18% and Werder Bremen at 15%, once the margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.7% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Borussia Dortmund -1.25 at 1.74, Werder Bremen at 2.19. The main goals line is 3.5: over 2.02, under 1.86, which gives over 48%.
Form in numbers
- Borussia Dortmund create more: 1.72 expected goals a match against 1.29 for Werder Bremen.
- Borussia Dortmund give away less, 0.96 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Borussia Dortmund 14.5 (5.3 on target), Werder Bremen 13.8 (6.5 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): Borussia Dortmund 47.8%, Werder Bremen 48.2%.
| Borussia Dortmund | Per match | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| 1.72 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.29 |
| 0.96 | xG conceded | 1.59 |
| 2.25 | Goals | 2.00 |
| 14.5 | Shots | 13.8 |
| 5.3 | Shots on target | 6.5 |
| 2.3 | Big chances missed | 1.3 |
| 47.8 | Pressure share % | 48.2 |
| 18.5 | Tackles | 23.0 |
| 11.3 | Fouls | 12.8 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 4 and 4 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Borussia Dortmund won 2, drew 2 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 May 2026 | Werder Bremen | 0 – 2 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 13 Jan 2026 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 – 0 | Werder Bremen |
| 25 Jan 2025 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 – 2 | Werder Bremen |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Werder Bremen | 0 – 0 | Borussia Dortmund |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.