Auxerre vs Le Mans Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 8
Ligue 1 · Sunday 25 October 2026 · 16:15 UTC · Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre · updated 2026-10-11
Auxerre welcome Le Mans to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Auxerre in Ligue 1 Gameweek 8 action on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 16:15 UTC.
Auxerre have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 2.4 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Le Mans have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 17% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Auxerre 41%, the draw 22%, Le Mans 36%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Auxerre 1.93, Le Mans 1.81.
- Over 2.5 goals: 72% · both teams to score: 72%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Auxerre: form and key numbers
In style Auxerre are happy without the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.33 a match created, 1.89 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.4).
- Shots: 12.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 45.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.67.
Le Mans: form and key numbers
In style Le Mans are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.63 a match created, 2.10 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.2).
- Shots: 10.5 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 43.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.71.
Auxerre vs Le Mans: season averages side by side
| Auxerre | Per match this season | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 1.7 |
| 2.4 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 1.33 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.63 |
| 1.89 | xG conceded | 2.10 |
| 12.0 | Shots | 10.5 |
| 5.0 | On target | 4.7 |
| 45.0 | Possession % | 43.2 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 80% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 6.0 | Corners | 2.8 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
| 6.67 | Average rating | 6.71 |
Players to watch
Auxerre
- Danny Namaso LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 47 · Gets into scoring positions, Big-chance creator (top 19% of his position)
- Kévin Danois DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 45 · Duel winner, Ball-winner (top 4% of his position)
Le Mans
- Lucas Calodat LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 57 · Creator, Hard to dribble past (top 12% of his position)
- Nicolas Kocik GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 55 · Long passer, Shot-stopper (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Louis Mafouta
Louis Mafouta, 32 · Le Mans · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 58
Louis Mafouta, 32, plays as a centre-forward for Le Mans in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and shots on target. Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 58
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.30 xG/shot | 99% |
| Shots on target | 67% | 96% |
| Expected goals | 0.83 / 90 | 92% |
| Goals | 0.55 / 90 | 66% |
| Shots | 2.73 / 90 | 39% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★ Inside forward Winger
- ★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Louis Mafouta is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Louis Mafouta's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Auxerre vs Le Mans prediction
Auxerre should have more of the ball; Auxerre like to take players on; Le Mans go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals - 1.93 for Auxerre and 1.81 for Le Mans - with over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams scoring at 72%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Auxerre 1-1 Le Mans
Auxerre vs Le Mans betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 72% by the model, 3.74 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 72% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 8.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Troyes vs Olympique Marseille Sunday 11 October 2026
- Le Mans vs Toulouse Friday 16 October 2026
- Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 17 October 2026
- Troyes vs Lens Saturday 17 October 2026
- LOSC Lille vs Brest Saturday 17 October 2026
- Angers SCO vs Olympique Marseille Sunday 18 October 2026
- Paris vs Rennes Sunday 18 October 2026
- Lorient vs Monaco Sunday 18 October 2026
Auxerre vs Le Mans: questions and answers
When is Auxerre vs Le Mans?
Auxerre vs Le Mans is on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 16:15 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 8.
Where is Auxerre vs Le Mans played?
At Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre, Auxerre's home ground.
Who will win Auxerre vs Le Mans?
It is close: Auxerre 41%, draw 22%, Le Mans 36%. Our prediction is Auxerre 1-1 Le Mans.
Who is the player to watch in Auxerre vs Le Mans?
Louis Mafouta of Le Mans: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 58 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Auxerre vs Le Mans?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 72%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.