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Benfica vs Celtic: Prediction, Stats and Preview

Europa League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Lisboa · updated 2026-10-09

Benfica host Celtic in the Europa League on Thursday 15 October 2026 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Benfica clear favourites at 78%, puts the draw at 13% and expects about 4.0 goals.

Moneyball's estimate

Benfica78%fair odds 1.28
Draw13%fair odds 7.43
Celtic8%fair odds 11.92

From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 2 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.

Season statistics

BenficaPer match this seasonCeltic
7Matches2
3.0Goals scored2.0
0.9Goals conceded2.5
1.85Expected goals (xG)0.86
16.6Shots12.5
6.4On target5.0
61.3Possession %58.0
29%Clean sheets %50%
71%Both teams scored %50%
6.7Corners6.5
1.4Yellow cards0.5
7.08Average rating6.88

Averages per match from Sportmonks; Celtic in its domestic league.

The full analysis

Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.

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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.