Brest vs Nice: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Ligue 1 · Friday 23 October 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Stade Francis-Le Ble, Brest · updated 2026-10-09
Brest host Nice in Ligue 1 on Friday 23 October 2026 at Stade Francis-Le Ble. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Brest favourites at 54%, puts the draw at 25% and expects about 2.7 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Brest 1.70, Nice 0.96.
- Over 2.5 goals: 49% · both teams to score: 51%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Bradley Locko
Bradley Locko, 24 · Brest · LB · Defensive full-back
Moneyball Scout picks Bradley Locko as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 71 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 44, defensive 68).
- Duels won: 7.03 per 90 minutes, better than 93% of full-backs
- Accurate crosses: 0.80 per 90 minutes, better than 87% of full-backs
- Successful dribbles: 1.00 per 90 minutes, better than 82% of full-backs
Nice score 0.6 goals a match this season from 0.97 expected: stopping them runs through Bradley Locko.
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Crosser, Dribbler.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Brest | Per match this season | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 0.6 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 2.08 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.97 |
| 1.16 | xG conceded | 1.47 |
| 19.2 | Shots | 11.8 |
| 5.8 | On target | 3.0 |
| 46.8 | Possession % | 56.8 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 80% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 5.6 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 1.2 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.88 | Average rating | 6.76 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Brest
- Ludovic Ajorque forward · rating 7.34 · 5 apps
- Kamory Doumbia midfielder · rating 7.33 · 5 apps
- Joris Chotard midfielder · rating 7.19 · 5 apps
Nice
- Mohamed Amoura forward · rating 7.04 · 3 apps
- Gauthier Hein forward · rating 7.04 · 5 apps
- Sofiane Diop midfielder · rating 7.04 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Lens vs Olympique Lyonnais Friday 9 October 2026
- Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans Saturday 10 October 2026
- Monaco vs Toulouse Saturday 10 October 2026
- Lorient vs Paris Saturday 10 October 2026
- Brest vs Angers SCO Saturday 10 October 2026
- Troyes vs Olympique Marseille Sunday 11 October 2026
- Le Mans vs Toulouse Friday 16 October 2026
- Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.