Celje vs Salzburg: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stadion Z'dežele, Celje · updated 2026-10-09
Celje host Salzburg in the Europa League on Thursday 22 October 2026 at Stadion Z'dežele. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Salzburg favourites at 58%, puts the draw at 24% and expects about 2.8 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Celje 0.94, Salzburg 1.84.
- Over 2.5 goals: 52% · both teams to score: 52%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Season statistics
| Celje | Per match this season | Salzburg |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.7 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 0.6 |
| 0.66 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.08 |
| 11.0 | Shots | 16.6 |
| 5.0 | On target | 6.2 |
| 57.3 | Possession % | 59.0 |
| 17% | Clean sheets % | 80% |
| 83% | Both teams scored % | 20% |
| 5.2 | Corners | 6.4 |
| 3.3 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 6.50 | Average rating | 6.97 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Celje in its domestic league.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa League previews
- AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva Thursday 15 October 2026
- Union Saint-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad Thursday 15 October 2026
- Torreense vs Sunderland Thursday 15 October 2026
- Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Thursday 15 October 2026
- Olympique Lyonnais vs Crystal Palace Thursday 15 October 2026
- Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm Thursday 15 October 2026
- Celje vs Omonia Nicosia Thursday 15 October 2026
- Salzburg vs AC Milan Thursday 15 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.